Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Deleveraging: A Springboard to $150K by Year-End

Bitcoin's price has stabilized above $120,000 following a significant deleveraging event in futures markets, with analysts suggesting a potential 15–25% upside into the fourth quarter of 2025. The correction, which saw open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts drop by approximately $10 billion between February 20 and March 4, 2025, has been characterized as a "natural market reset" by on-chain analysts at CryptoQuant. This decline, which reduced aggregate open interest to $22.71 billion from a peak of $33 billion in January, reflects a broader shift in trader behavior toward risk-off positioning after Bitcoin reached all-time highs in mid-January.

The deleveraging event aligns with historical patterns observed during prior market cycles, where excessive leverage in derivatives markets preceded short- to medium-term bullish recoveries. For instance, a similar correction in March 2024, which erased $1 billion in open interest, coincided with a normalization of funding rates and eventually paved the way for a sustained rally later in the year. Current funding rate trends further support this thesis, with rates turning negative in late February and remaining below -0.005 by March 2, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.

On-chain metrics reinforce the case for a consolidation phase. Short-term holder flows show a near-even split between profit-taking and loss realization, with 24,100 BTC moved to exchanges at a profit versus 19,700 BTC at a loss as of October 2025. Additionally, spot market activity on Binance indicates renewed buying interest near the $120,000 level, with cumulative volume delta (CVD) data highlighting a concentration of bids in this range. This suggests that $120,000 may function as a key demand zone in the near term, while open interest declines-particularly the 7.9% drop on Binance-reflect cautious repositioning rather than a full-scale exit.

Market strategists are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory. Timo Oinonen of CryptoQuant points to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio as a critical indicator of potential upside. Current readings suggest a base scenario where prices could rise 15–25% toward $140,000–$150,000 by year-end, supported by long-term holder accumulation and resilient short-term cost bases. A more bullish scenario, where MVRV climbs above 4.0 (mirroring the 2021 cycle), could drive Bitcoin toward $170,000–$200,000 amid renewed market euphoria and post-halving supply dynamics.

The broader market context also favors a bullish bias. Institutional activity, including ETF inflows and whale accumulation, has accelerated since July 2025, with spot demand growing at a rate of over 62,000 BTC per month. This trend, historically associated with Q4 rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024, positions the current cycle for a similar outcome. Meanwhile, historical seasonality patterns-averaging 20% returns in October and 46% in November-add further support to the case for a late-year surge.

Analysts caution that a breakout above $120,000 will require sustained inflows into spot markets, institutional participation, or a post-halving supply squeeze. Key indicators to monitor include cumulative volume delta, net exchange outflows, and the behavior of long-term holders, who have shown resilience in defending lower price levels since early 2024. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $120,000 and $125,000, with $120,000 serving as a critical support level and $123,000 emerging as a potential short-term value area.

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-futures-deleveraging-wipes-10b-open-interest-in-2-weeks)

[2] AMBCrypto (https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-open-interest-crashes-by-10b-will-this-wipeout-fuel-a-new-rally/)

[3] MoneyCheck (https://moneycheck.com/the-great-bitcoin-reset-how-a-10b-deleveraging-led-to-fresh-trading-momentum/)

[4] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/dollar150k-bitcoin-price-likely-after-btc-anchors-to-a-high-value-area-analyst)

[6] Coinotag (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-poised-above-120000-after-leverage-reset-analysts-see-possible-15-25-upside-into-q4/)

[8] TronWeekly (https://www.tronweekly.com/bitcoin-price-near-120k-breakout-130k-target-q4/)