Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Crossroads: Fed Easing vs. Trade War Fears Test $100K Threshold

Bitcoin's price faces mounting pressure as it teeters near critical technical thresholds, with analysts warning that the cryptocurrency could slip below $100,000 by month-end. The digital asset, which has long been a barometer for macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions, now finds itself in a volatile crosscurrent of waning "Uptober" momentum, U.S.-China trade uncertainties, and evolving Federal Reserve policy.

Bitcoin currently trades around $108,000, oscillating between the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $107,846 and the 365-day SMA at $100,367, a compression zone that has historically trapped price action for extended periods, according to a CoinDesk report. Key support levels, including $103,509 (2025 investor cost basis) and the psychological floor of $100,000, are now under scrutiny. Analysts note that this range-bound setup has emerged four times since the 2023 bull market began, with the 365-day SMA often acting as a secondary support if the 200SMA fails, the CoinDesk report says.

The cryptocurrency's struggles come amid resurfacing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have dampened risk appetite across asset classes. Recent reports of potential U.S. export curbs to China reignited fears of a trade war, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and tech stocks while crypto markets stagnated, according to an Investing.com article. Bitcoin's performance in October—a traditionally strong period for digital assets—has been lackluster, down nearly 5% year-to-date, a stark contrast to the 10% gains seen in October 2024, the article notes.

However, optimism flickers amid the uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts and the potential end of quantitative tightening have injected liquidity into markets, with Bitcoin rising nearly 2% in 24 hours to $109,405 as of late October, according to a Coinotag report. Analysts suggest that lower interest rates could drive capital into riskier assets like crypto, though they caution that trade developments remain a wildcard, the Coinotag report adds.

Technical indicators point to further volatility. Some experts predict Bitcoin could test $104,000, a level where significant leverage and liquidity clusters exist, according to a CoinCentral analysis. Historical patterns show that prior dips to the 50-week SMA—such as the $74,000 low in April 2025 and $49,000 in August 2024—were followed by strong reversals, the CoinCentral analysis notes. "Markets often feel worst right before they reverse," one analyst noted, citing parallels to past cycles.

The path forward remains fraught. While de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions briefly boosted Bitcoin to a 2% gain, the Coinotag report cautioned that renewed hostilities could trigger another selloff. The 200-day EMA, a critical support level that has held during most of this cycle, now faces renewed tests amid market consolidation, analysts told CoinCentral.

As the month draws to a close, Bitcoin's fate hinges on a delicate balance: macroeconomic tailwinds from Fed easing, geopolitical risks from trade tensions, and the technical resilience of key moving averages. Investors brace for a pivotal period, with the $100,000 level serving as both a psychological and structural benchmark, the CoinDesk report concludes.