Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 'Cool' Bull Run: Mayer Multiple Fuels Extended Ascent

Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple, a metric used to gauge whether the cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold relative to its 200-week moving average, currently stands at 1.16x, indicating that Bitcoin (BTC) remains far from overheated despite trading near all-time highs. Analysts, including Frank A. Fetter, a prominent crypto quant, argue that this level suggests significant upside potential before the market would be considered overbought. According to Fetter, BTC would need to reach $180,000 to hit the 2.4x threshold typically associated with overbought conditions. This analysis aligns with historical data, as the Mayer Multiple in this bull cycle has peaked at 1.84x in March 2024, when BTC was trading around $72,000.

The current Mayer Multiple reading, closer to the "oversold" range of 0.8x than the overbought 2.4x level, suggests a structural imbalance in the market. Axel Adler Jr., an onchain analyst from CryptoQuant, described the 1.1x level as a "good fuel reserve for a new upward impulse," emphasizing that Bitcoin is trading at a discount compared to previous bull rallies. This view is supported by broader onchain metrics, as platforms like CoinGlass report that 30 key bull market peak indicators remain in "hold" territory, indicating no imminent reversal signal.

The timing of Bitcoin's next major move remains a focal point for market participants. While some analysts expect a breakout by year-end, others caution that a 10% pullback to $114,000 or lower is possible in the short term. October, traditionally a strong month for Bitcoin, is seen as a critical period for price action. Fetter and Adler both highlight the importance of institutional adoption and regulatory developments in shaping the trajectory. For instance, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have surged, with corporate treasuries holding nearly 950,000 BTC worth over $110 billion as of September 2025. These factors, combined with the Mayer Multiple's neutral stance, suggest a market still in accumulation mode.

The Mayer Multiple's historical context further underscores its relevance. During previous bull cycles, the metric often reached overbought levels earlier in the trend. For example, in 2017 and 2021, the Mayer Multiple peaked closer to 2.4x during mid-cycle rallies. In contrast, the 2024–2025 cycle has seen a more gradual ascent, with the Multiple peaking at 1.84x in March 2024. This "cooler" trajectory implies that Bitcoin's current rally could extend further before exhausting bullish momentum. Analysts like Adler argue that the current environment is structurally different due to increased institutional participation and regulatory clarity, which may prolong the bull phase.

Despite the bullish signals, risks persist. A failure to break above $120,000 could trigger a corrective phase, with October's volatility potentially testing key support levels. However, the Mayer Multiple's distance from overbought territory provides a buffer, suggesting that even in a pullback, the market retains upward momentum. Fetter's analysis, which ties the Mayer Multiple to historical price performance, highlights that Bitcoin's energy value-based on mining costs and network energy consumption-currently supports a price of around $130,000. This aligns with VanEck's $180,000 year-end target, which factors in ETF demand and corporate adoption.

In conclusion, the Mayer Multiple remains a critical tool for assessing Bitcoin's market health. With the metric well below overbought levels and institutional demand showing no signs of abating, the case for further appreciation remains strong. However, investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility and the need for a decisive breakout to confirm the next phase of the bull run.

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mayer-multiple-btc-price-can-180k-before-overbought)

[3] 99Bitcoins (https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-btc/bitcoin-price-prediction-can-btc-reach-200k-by-year-end-or-180k-in-2025/)

[6] BTCer News (https://www.btcer.news/en/article/cfdfff0cdf761f73ac36a57d694ef3b7)