Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Consolidates Below $116,000 as Trump Tariffs Spur Caution

Bitcoin has been consolidating below the $116,000 resistance level this week, with traders appearing indecisive amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty [1]. The implementation of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump has further contributed to a cautious market sentiment, with analysts noting that additional trade-related announcements could inject fresh volatility into the crypto markets [1].

According to K33 Research, BTC's 30-day volatility remains at one-year lows at 1.33%, with seven-day volatility at a modest 1.2%, slightly above the near two-year low of 0.76% recorded on July 30 [1]. Despite this low volatility, market participants are increasingly anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in September, offering a degree of optimism to risk assets like Bitcoin [1]. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a more than 90% probability that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, with expectations of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end [1].

A recent U.S. debt auction highlighted weak foreign demand, forcing domestic institutions to absorb a large portion of the offering—a trend that, if sustained, could pressure the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further, potentially supporting Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation [1]. Meanwhile, institutional demand shows signs of a modest rebound, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a $91.55 million inflow on Wednesday, ending a four-day outflow streak [1]. However, these inflows remain below levels seen prior to Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has entered a low-liquidity “air gap” between $110,000 and $116,000, a zone historically associated with opportunistic accumulation [1]. The firm also noted that the proportion of short-term holder (STH) coins being sold for profit has cooled to 45%, below the neutral threshold, indicating a relatively balanced market [1]. About 70% of STH supply remains in profit, with a nearly even split between profit-taking and loss realizations for coins currently in motion.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin closed below the $116,000 level at the end of July and fell nearly 3% in the following two days, testing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $113,182 [1]. This level aligns with Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $111,980, making it a key support zone. As of Thursday, BTC has recovered slightly and is currently trading near $114,900 [1].

A daily close above $116,000 could signal a potential move toward the $120,000 psychological level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains flat around 50, suggesting continued indecision among traders [1]. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish following a bearish crossover on July 23 [1]. A close below the 50-day EMA at $113,182 could push Bitcoin lower toward the previous all-time high of $111,980.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Consolidates as Trump Tariffs Go Into Effect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-consolidates-as-trump-tariffs-go-into-effect-202508071001)