Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Climbs, But On-Chain Metric Points to Surprising Undervaluation

Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple, a key on-chain metric comparing the cryptocurrency's price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA), continues to signal undervaluation despite Bitcoin's proximity to all-time highs. The indicator currently stands at approximately 1.16, according to Cointelegraph, placing it closer to the "oversold" threshold of 0.8 than the overbought level of 2.4. This suggests ample room for further price appreciation before reaching historically significant overvaluation territory. Analysts such as Frank A. Fetter, a crypto quant researcher, emphasize that Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple remains "ice cold" even at $120,000, indicating a potential price target of $180,000 to reach the 2.4 ratio.

The Mayer Multiple's behavior this bull cycle has diverged from previous trends. Unlike the 2017 cycle, where the metric peaked at 2.7 before a sharp correction, the current cycle has seen a maximum of 1.84 in March 2024, when Bitcoin traded around $72,000. This suggests a more measured uptrend, with on-chain data platforms like Glassnode noting that the metric has cooled relative to historical cycles. Axel Adler Jr., a CryptoQuant contributor, reinforced this view, stating that the current 1.1x reading falls within the neutral zone (0.8–1.5x) and reflects a "good fuel reserve for a new upward impulse".

Price projections align with the Mayer Multiple's trajectory. To reach 2.4, Bitcoin would need to surpass $180,000, a level highlighted by Fetter and corroborated by on-chain analytics. This target contrasts with the 2017 peak of $20,000, adjusted for inflation, underscoring the evolving dynamics of Bitcoin's market maturity. Meanwhile, a separate analysis from TradingView noted a Mayer Multiple of 1.37, suggesting a slightly higher overbought threshold at $181,000. These discrepancies highlight the need to contextualize the metric within broader market conditions and timeframes.

A growing consensus among analysts points to October 2025 as a likely timeframe for Bitcoin's next bull market peak. Rekt Capital, a prominent trader, cited historical halving cycles and macroeconomic trends to justify this projection, noting that the peak is "only 2-3 months away". Trader Jelle similarly indicated that profit-taking has already begun, with the cycle top expected around October 2025. CryptoCon added that most data points favor a cycle completion by year-end, despite speculative hopes for an extension into 2026. These views are supported by CoinGlass, which reported that 30 bull market peak indicators remain in "hold" territory, reinforcing the absence of immediate top signals.

The Mayer Multiple's historical significance as a trend and valuation tool is well-documented. Defined as the ratio of Bitcoin's price to its 200DMA, the metric provides insights into market psychology and cyclical behavior. Readings above 2.4 historically signal overvaluation, while values below 0.8 indicate oversold conditions. For instance, Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple dipped below 0.6 during major bear market bottoms in 2011, 2013, and 2020. The current 1.16–1.37 range suggests a healthy bull market phase, with no immediate signs of exhaustion.

On-chain metrics further validate the bullish narrative. The Cycle Master model, which maps Bitcoin's price into undervalued, fair value, and overvalued zones, places the overvalued boundary near $260,000, with a more conservative target at $180,000. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, another key indicator, suggests a price range of $180,000–$195,000 before euphoria turns into excess. These metrics, combined with the Mayer Multiple, paint a picture of a market in late-stage accumulation, historically followed by sharp rallies and corrections.

While macroeconomic factors remain mixed, with the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty and the U.S. dollar's strength tempering some bullish momentum, the on-chain data remains resilient. Investors and traders are advised to monitor October 2025 as a critical juncture, balancing technical indicators with risk management strategies. As the Mayer Multiple continues to trend upward, the path to $180,000 appears increasingly probable, though the timing of the final leg remains subject to evolving market dynamics.

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mayer-multiple-btc-price-can-180k-before-overbought)

[2] Coinglass (https://www.coinglass.com/news/508671)

[3] BTC Frame AI (https://btcframe.com/2025/08/15/the-mayer-multiple-understanding-bitcoins-relationship-with-its-200-day-moving-average/)

[4] Coinotag (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple-suggests-potential-undervaluation-ahead-of-possible-october-2025-price-peak/)

[5] Bitcoin Magazine (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-slumps-analysts-eye-180k)

[6] Bitbo (https://bitbo.io/news/analysts-mayer-multiple-bitcoin/)

[7] TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:ca8731fe6094b:0-bitcoin-to-181-000-mayer-multiple-reveals-when-btc-will-become-overbought/)