Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bullish On-Chain Signs Clash with Bearish Technical Warnings

Bitcoin's price action has stabilized near $112,000, positioning the cryptocurrency for potential volatility ahead of the weekly close and the Bitcoin futures market open. Traders are closely monitoring the $114,000 level, with market analysts suggesting a liquidity grab could occur as short-term positions are liquidated. A $19 billion liquidation event earlier this week tempered immediate momentum, but participants remain optimistic about a rebound into the following week Cointelegraph^[1]. Technical indicators, including the 200-day and 200-week moving averages, have become focal points for both bullish and bearish strategies.

The BTC/USD pair has seen consolidation around $114,000, with traders and analysts like Skew and HTL-NL noting that the market's thin liquidity and macroeconomic backdrop amplify the importance of the upcoming weekly close. Skew highlighted the potential for a "relief bounce" into the futures market open, emphasizing the role of macroeconomic factors and cautious positioning in volatile markets. Meanwhile, HTL-NL observed that while the market remains unpredictable, a significant crash appears unlikely, as corrections had already been anticipated Cointelegraph^[1].

On-chain data further supports the bullish case. Exchange outflows have highlighted long-term accumulation, with the long-to-short ratio reaching a 1.05, its highest in over a month. Spot ETF inflows of $368 million on September 8 marked a reversal from prior outflows, suggesting institutional participation is building ahead of a potential breakout. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had surged to "Greed" levels in recent months, has moderated to a neutral 49, indicating reduced speculative fervor and potentially extending the sustainability of the current rally TradingNEWS^[3].

Technical analysis from Caleb Franzen of Cubic Analytics underscores the resilience of Bitcoin's bull market structure. Despite short-term fluctuations, Franzen argued that the uptrend remains intact as long as BTC/USD continues to form higher lows and higher highs. He cited historical consolidations in 2023, 2024, and 2025 as precedents for brief dips below the 200-day moving average before resuming upward trajectories. The 200-day moving average remains a critical threshold, with Franzen noting that a reclaim of this level would reaffirm the bullish trend Cointelegraph^[1].

Macroeconomic tailwinds are also supporting Bitcoin's price. The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined in August, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with 88% of futures traders pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction. This policy shift has amplified Bitcoin's appeal as a high-beta asset, with historical data showing 10–15% rallies following Fed easing. Conversely, hotter-than-expected CPI readings could trigger retracements, highlighting the asset's sensitivity to monetary policy TradingNEWS^[3].

Long-term price projections have gained traction as traders draw parallels to past cycles. Analyst Merlijn The Trader noted similarities between current price action and Bitcoin's 2017 cycle, suggesting a potential target of $200,000–$220,000 by early 2026. Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, echoed this sentiment, predicting a surge to $185,000 if Bitcoin avoids topping out this week. His analysis relies on a four-year cycle model, where the time between the halving and peak has historically mirrored the time from the cycle low to halving NewsBTC^[5].

However, bearish signals persist. Omkar Godbole of CoinDesk highlighted a bearish configuration of short-term moving averages and weakening momentum indicators, warning that further gains may be short-lived. ETFs tracking high-yield corporate bonds and financial sectors have also shown risk-off tendencies, reflecting broader market caution. Immediate support is identified at $120,000 and $118,000, with a breakdown below $120,000 potentially reigniting bearish momentum .

The 200-day moving average has retested as resistance after Bitcoin fell below it in late January 2025. Analyst Daan noted that this pattern historically signals prolonged bearish action, with consolidation periods lasting months. If bulls fail to reclaim the 200-day MA, further downside to $104,000 or the 200-day moving average at $101,000 could follow .