Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Run Fed by Global Liquidity, Not Halving Cycles

Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle, historically tied to halving events, is no longer a reliable predictor of price movements, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Maelstrom. In a recent analysis, Hayes argued that global monetary policy-particularly in the U.S. and China-has rendered the cycle obsolete, with Bitcoin's price now driven by liquidity conditions rather than halving schedules .

Hayes emphasized that previous bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were triggered by monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. For instance, Bitcoin's price historically plummeted by 70–80% from bull market peaks during periods of monetary contraction . The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and while some market participants anticipated a bear market 16–18 months later, Hayes contends that accommodative monetary conditions will extend the current bull run .

The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Chinese government are central to this shift. The Fed has already cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% in September 2025 and is expected to reduce rates further by up to 100 basis points over the next year, signaling continued liquidity support . Meanwhile, China's focus on ending deflation and avoiding liquidity drains aligns with global easing trends, removing a potential headwind for Bitcoin's price . Hayes noted that U.S. President Donald Trump's economic agenda-prioritizing growth, reducing debt, and lowering housing costs-also supports a liquidity-driven environment .

This divergence from historical patterns is underscored by the role of liquidity. Hayes highlighted that Bitcoin's bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2020–2021 coincided with monetary expansion, such as U.S. quantitative easing and Chinese credit surges. The current cycle, he argues, follows the same logic, with the U.S. Treasury injecting $2.5 trillion into markets via the Fed's Reverse Repo program and Japan's potential adoption of Abenomics-style stimulus further reinforcing liquidity .

Market data supports this narrative. Bitcoin (BTC) reached $122,136.23 in October 2025, with spot ETF inflows, including BlackRock's IBIT, adding $3.2 billion in weekly flows . Open interest on major exchanges like Binance has also seen fluctuations, indicating dynamic market participation . However, Hayes cautioned that while liquidity remains a key driver, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity-such as the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs-have added structural support to Bitcoin's price trajectory .

The implications for Bitcoin's future are clear: Hayes predicts the bull market will continue as central banks maintain accommodative policies. "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future," he wrote . This perspective aligns with broader macroeconomic trends, where global liquidity expansion and debt-driven monetary strategies position Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat depreciation .

[1] Coindesk, "Bitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/bitcoin-crash-off-the-table-as-four-year-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes)

[2] Yahoo Finance, "Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Now Dead" (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-4-cycle-064012482.html)

[3] Cointelegraph, "Real Reason 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Arthur Hayes" (https://cointelegraph.com/news/real-reason-4-year-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes)

[4] Invezz, "What Does the Macro Outlook for Bitcoin Look Like?" (https://invezz.com/news/2025/10/03/what-does-the-macro-outlook-for-bitcoin-look-like/)