Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bull Run Faces High Stakes as VanEck Eyes $180K

VanEck has reiterated its bold $180,000 price target for Bitcoin (BTC) by year-end 2025, maintaining confidence in the cryptocurrency despite recent volatility and mixed performance in the mining sector. The firm’s latest analysis, based on market dynamics, derivatives positioning, and mining infrastructure developments, underscores its belief in Bitcoin’s ability to break past record highs. BTC hit a new all-time high of $124,000 in early August, with VanEck noting that CME basis funding rates reached 9%, the highest since February 2025, reflecting renewed speculative activity and bullish sentiment.

The firm’s assessment is supported by robust onchain activity, including a 26% month-over-month increase in network transactions to 12.9 million—the highest since November 2024. While Bitcoin’s market dominance dipped slightly to 59.7% by mid-August, Ethereum gained share amid broader digital asset market expansion. Additionally, exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) added 54,000 BTC and 72,000 BTC, respectively, in July, indicating sustained institutional interest and accumulation.

Derivatives markets also reflected strong bullish positioning, with the call/put ratio rising to 3.21x, the highest since June 2024. Call premiums surged by 37% month-over-month to $792 million, while implied volatility dropped to 32%, well below the 50% one-year average. This compression has led to lower option pricing, with a +25% out-of-the-money 1-year call now costing approximately 6% of spot value, compared to 18% in late 2024.

The Bitcoin mining landscape showed signs of consolidation and growth, with U.S.-listed miners capturing 31.5% of the global hashrate in August, a record high. Key players like Hive Digital and Cleanspark expanded their operations, while TeraWulf (WULF) secured a significant partnership with Fluidstack backed by Google, signaling growing integration of AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads into mining infrastructure.

Despite these developments, performance across the mining equity index was mixed. While APLD surged by approximately 54% on strong earnings and a CoreWeave expansion, other miners like CIFR declined amid operational uncertainties. VanEck highlighted that the broader mining sector faces execution risks, particularly in scaling AI/HPC capabilities, which could drive performance dispersion among operators.

VanEck also noted risks associated with prolonged low-volatility regimes, which could constrain capital-raising abilities for DATs and lead to further compression of modified net asset values (mNAVs). Public Bitcoin treasuries now hold 951,000 BTC, with companies like Marathon Digital Holdings (MSTR) continuing to drive interest in the space. However, mNAVs for MSTR, MTPLF, and SMLR fell in July, indicating challenges in maintaining valuation premiums.

Looking ahead, VanEck warned that macroeconomic developments and seasonal investor re-engagement could either extend Bitcoin’s momentum or trigger profit-taking. Large outstanding options positions increase the likelihood of amplified price swings due to dealer hedging, particularly in the event of unexpected volatility. The firm also highlighted the importance of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meetings, noting that a potential rate cut in September could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin prices.

Source: [1] VanEck Mid-August 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2025-bitcoin-chaincheck/) [2] VanEck Reiterates Bitcoin Target of $180k Before End ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/vaneck-reiterates-bitcoin-target-of-180k-before-end-of-2025/) [3] Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How Low Can ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-rising-wedge-breakdown-how-low-can-bitcoin-go)