Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Breakout Hinges on Miners and Geopolitics as $116K Threshold Looms

Bitcoin's price has edged closer to a potential breakout above $120,000 as miner activity stabilizes and seasonal trends align with bullish technical signals. The cryptocurrency, trading near $114,000 as of October 27, 2025, has seen miner reserves level out after months of forced selling driven by post-halving operational costs, according to a crypto.news analysis. This stabilization has eased sell pressure and improved on-chain metrics, including hashprice and transaction fees, which are now supporting miner profitability, the analysis adds. Analysts suggest that a sustained move above $118K–$120K could trigger a rally toward $125K–$130K, echoing previous post-halving rallies.

The timing coincides with Bitcoin's "golden week," a historically strong period in October that has delivered 7% gains since 2015, according to a Cointelegraph analysis. Network economist Timothy Peterson highlighted on X that Bitcoin must reclaim $116,000 by October 29 to secure these gains, a threshold briefly touched earlier in the week. While current gains stand at 4.5%, Peterson noted the bull market remains on track for potential all-time highs above $160,000 in December, based on long-term seasonality patterns.

Geopolitical developments are also influencing sentiment. The White House confirmed a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30, fueling hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions, as Barron's live coverage reported. This followed Trump's earlier threats of new tariffs on China, which had sparked a crypto selloff. A deal could reduce macroeconomic uncertainty, which has been a drag on Bitcoin's performance. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's 98.3% probability of a rate cut in October 2025 has further bolstered risk appetite, according to a TradingView note, with Bitcoin rising 1.6% to $111,390 following the Trump-Xi confirmation.

However, optimism is tempered by risks. A drop below $110,000 could reignite miner capitulation, exacerbating sell-offs, the crypto.news analysis warned. Yardeni Research warned in an Investing.com interview that any U.S.-China trade agreement might resemble a "ceasefire" rather than a lasting resolution, with historical precedents showing volatility resuming after temporary accords. Additionally, the delayed $4 billion Bitcoin repayments from Mt. Gox remain a wildcard, with analysts split on whether the bearish or bullish implications dominate.

The broader macroeconomic landscape also plays a role. Global M2 money supply is accelerating at its fastest pace since 2020, while a French proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve—targeting 2% of the total supply—signals growing institutional acceptance, according to the TradingView note. Yet, structural challenges persist, including North Korea's continued alignment with Russia and skepticism over the enforceability of recent U.S. trade deals.

Bitcoin's path forward hinges on a delicate balance between technical resilience and geopolitical outcomes. With miners stabilizing and liquidity conditions improving, the stage is set for a potential breakout—but whether the "golden week" delivers its full 7% return or fizzles into another flat October remains uncertain.