Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Bearish Crossroads: $14B Expiry and Deteriorating Data Test $80K Support

Bitcoin's price remains in a precarious position near $86,500, caught between bearish technical indicators and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty as the market braces for a pivotal $14 billion BTC options expiry on November 28 according to market analysis. The cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim key resistance levels above $88,000, with traders increasingly concerned that neutral-to-bearish options positioning and deteriorating economic data could deepen the correction. Aggregate open interest for call (buy) options stands at $9.12 billion, but 84% of these positions are above $91,000, meaning they risk expiring worthless if Bitcoin remains below $90,000. Meanwhile, put (sell) options valued at $5.92 billion are better aligned with current price levels, suggesting a higher probability of downside bias.

The bearish case is reinforced by broader macroeconomic trends. US private employment data and declining consumer confidence have raised concerns about economic resilience, while recent 3.5 billion in November spot ETF outflows signal institutional caution. However, short-term inflows of $238 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a potential stabilizing force. Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom, a former BitMEX co-founder, argues that the $80,000 level could act as a critical support zone, noting that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening on December 1 will improve dollar liquidity for crypto markets. This shift, combined with increased US bank lending in November, could create a more favorable backdrop for Bitcoin in the coming months.

Technical analysis paints a mixed picture. Bitcoin's monthly MACD histogram turned bearish in November, a pattern historically associated with prolonged downturns. On-chain metrics also suggest further downside risks, with the MVRV bands indicating Bitcoin is still trading above a key mean-reversion level. A breakdown below $85,000 could accelerate selling toward $80,000, with Fibonacci support at $82,900 offering a potential floor. Meanwhile, the RSI shows hidden bearish divergence, as Bitcoin made lower highs without a corresponding drop in the momentum indicator, signaling potential for a deeper correction.

Despite these challenges, some optimism persists. Traders added year-end call options in the $100,000 to $112,000 range over the past 48 hours, indicating medium-term bullish sentiment. The market is also watching for signs that the Federal Reserve's potential stimulus measures could offset broader weakness. Yet, for now, the path of least resistance appears downward. A sustained break above $88,000 remains crucial for bulls, but with 35% of put options aligned below $84,500, the probability of a bearish outcome remains high.