Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle: Institutional Inflows Clash with Whale Sell-Offs

Bitcoin's price action has ignited a debate over whether the market has reached a peak in its 1,064-day bull cycle, with technical indicators and whale behavior pointing to both caution and optimism. After consolidating around $104,700, Bitcoin faces critical resistance at $106,453-a-level tied to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its recent range-while institutional inflows and on-chain activity suggest a potential rebound.

Analysts highlight mixed signals in the data. On the bullish side, Bitcoin's RSI has edged closer to the neutral 50 level, signaling waning bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows converging lines and shrinking red histogram bars, hinting at an impending bullish crossover. If Bitcoin breaks above $106,453, it could target the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $109,755, a level that would validate a short-term rally.

However, whale activity paints a more complex picture. Long-term "OG" whales-holders with seven or more years of BTC-have intensified selling, offloading over 1,000 BTC per hour in 2025. Capriole Investments' Charles Edwards warns that these super whales are "cashing out," a trend that could pressure prices toward $89,600 if bearish sentiment dominates. Conversely, institutional and large holders are accumulating. On-chain data reveals that wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC increased balances by 29,600 BTC in a week, while Binance whales added $1.96 million per order during October's volatility. This dual dynamic-retail panic selling juxtaposed with whale buying-has tightened supply on exchanges, creating a potential floor near $100,353.

The return of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows has further complicated the narrative. After a period of outflows, funds like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC saw a $240 million net inflow on November 6. This institutional demand, coupled with corporate treasuries such as SEGG Media's $300 million Bitcoin allocation, underscores growing institutional confidence. Meanwhile, ETFs like LCPC AI are leveraging AI-integrated blockchain models to promote sustainable crypto growth, signaling broader adoption.

Technical analysts remain divided. JPMorgan's $170,000 2026 forecast hinges on monetary easing and sustained whale accumulation, while Galaxy Digital trimmed its 2025 target to $120,000 after October's whale sell-offs. The bearish case remains anchored in the RSI's struggle to break above 50 and the risk of a correction to $100,353 if bulls fail to reclaim key resistance.

As the market navigates this inflection point, the interplay between whale behavior, institutional flows, and technical levels will likely dictate Bitcoin's next move. With over 45,000 BTC accumulated in the past week-a second-largest weekly buy since March-large holders appear poised to influence the outcome. Whether this marks a cyclical peak or a consolidation phase remains to be seen, but the 1,064-day bull cycle pattern suggests volatility is far from over.