Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 99% Profit Milestone: Bullish Signal or Correction Warning?

Bitcoin's price has surged above $121,000, with over 99% of its addresses in profit, as data-driven simulations suggest a 50% probability of reaching $140,000 by the end of October. According to economist Timothy Peterson, who analyzed a decade of historical price data, the cryptocurrency's October gains may already be half-achieved, with simulations indicating a 43% chance of finishing below $136,000. The move follows a record high of $126,200 earlier this week, driven by robust institutional demand and declining exchange balances, which have dropped to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, reflecting a shrinking supply of coins on centralized platforms .

The rally has been fueled by unprecedented inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs, which have added over $60 billion since their January 2024 approvals. Recent weekly inflows hit $3.2 billion, the second-highest on record, as investors continue to allocate capital to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, exchange outflows have accelerated, with 170,000 BTC withdrawn in the past month alone. This dynamic has created a tight supply-demand imbalance, limiting pullbacks and reinforcing bullish momentum .

Despite the optimism, analysts caution that volatility remains a key risk. Some market participants, including Ardi of SignalPlus, note a historical pattern of ~5% short-term corrections following all-time highs, with Bitcoin often entering a period of consolidation afterward . A 10% pullback is also seen as plausible before a sustained rally, particularly if macroeconomic uncertainties-such as the U.S. government shutdown delaying inflation data-persist. The lack of fresh economic insights has left investors in limbo, with the Federal Reserve's rate-cut timeline uncertain.

The 99% profitability metric, as reported by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, underscores the market's strength. This level, historically associated with strong bull markets, indicates that nearly all Bitcoin holders are in the green. However, it also signals a potential inflection point, as similar metrics in past cycles preceded short-term corrections . Analysts like Ted Pillows highlight that Bitcoin's "supply in profit" ratio exceeding 99% has previously coincided with 3%–10% price dips, serving as a cooling mechanism before resuming upward trends .

The broader financial landscape also supports Bitcoin's trajectory. The S&P 500's constructive outlook, coupled with a 5% implied probability of a 10% rally in the S&P 500 by year-end, aligns with Bitcoin's bullish case. Options markets suggest limited short-term liquidation risks, with participants appearing underexposed to downside shocks . Nevertheless, the absence of a clear negative catalyst has allowed the market to remain extended, leaving it vulnerable to macroeconomic surprises.

Upcoming catalysts, including Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and Mag-7 earnings, will test the market's resilience. A clean run to $140,000 or a deeper correction will depend on how these events interact with an already stretched bull case. For now, the combination of ETF demand, whale withdrawals, and institutional buying provides a buffer for bulls, though the quiet macroeconomic environment cannot last indefinitely .

Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/08/bitcoin-to-usd140k-by-month-end-bullish-hopes-remain-even-as-tuesday-drop-sends-eth-xrp-sol-down-5)

The Market Periodical (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/08/15/100-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-in-profit-what-next-for-btc-price/)

NewsBTC (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/99-of-bitcoin-supply-in-profit-what-this-means-for-price/)