Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 90% Profit Milestone: Bullish Euphoria or Bear Market Prelude?

Bitcoin's supply in profit has surged to 90%, signaling a market entering a historically significant euphoria phase, according to on-chain analytics and industry experts. This metric, which measures the percentage of Bitcoin holdings trading above their acquisition cost, has approached levels seen before major price rallies in past bull cycles. Data from CryptoQuant and IntoTheBlock shows 91% of the circulating supply in profit as of late April 2025, a threshold often associated with heightened speculative activity and potential price extremes Coinspeaker^[1].

Historical patterns indicate that when supply in profit exceeds 90%, markets tend to experience sharp upward momentum followed by corrections. For example, during previous cycles, this level was frequently followed by price retracements to around 50% of holdings in profit, characteristic of bear market conditions Coinspeaker^[1]. Analysts caution that while the current phase reflects strong holder confidence, it also raises the risk of profit-taking and volatility.

Whale activity underscores the resilience of Bitcoin's bull market. Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (classified as "whales") have accumulated $150 billion in unrealized profits since early April, a 38% increase Coinspeaker^[1]. However, this concentration of gains also highlights potential selling pressure if market sentiment shifts. Miners have already offloaded $850 million worth of BTC in the past 12 days, suggesting caution as the price approaches the $100,000 psychological barrier Coinspeaker^[1].

On-chain demand metrics tell a mixed story. The 30-day demand momentum remains negative at -483,860 BTC, with the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at -310,700 BTC. This indicates weak short-term demand, as more BTC is being sold than absorbed Coinspeaker^[1]. Such dynamics are typical in late bull cycles or during macroeconomic consolidation phases, where sustained positive momentum requires a reversal in demand trends Coinspeaker^[1].

Market structure analysis reveals further complexity. Bitcoin's price hovers near the upper band of Bollinger Bands, with the RSI approaching overbought territory at 67. A breakout above $100,000 could accelerate gains, but a failure to sustain above the 20-day SMA could trigger a pullback Coinspeaker^[1]. Standard Chartered projects a potential rise to $120,000 by Q2 2025, while other analysts speculate $200,000–$250,000 by year-end Forbes^[2].

The October 2025 market crash, triggered by Trump's 100% China tariff announcement, briefly exposed vulnerabilities in the euphoria phase. Despite 91% of Bitcoin in profit, the crash erased $19.5 billion in leveraged positions, the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history . This event underscored the fragility of high-valuation environments, where algorithmic deleveraging and cross-margin contagion can amplify volatility.

Despite risks, Bitcoin's ownership distribution remains a stabilizing factor. Individuals still hold 65.9% of circulating BTC, while institutions, ETFs, and corporations account for 15.3%. Exchange cold wallets and mid-tier holders are growing, diversifying the market's structure . This maturation contrasts with early cycles, where retail dominance often led to sharp price swings.

The interplay between Bitcoin and global liquidity further contextualizes its resilience. Bitcoin's 0.94-year correlation with global M2 money supply growth suggests that ongoing monetary expansion by central banks could support higher prices. However, short-term deviations from this trend-such as the post-halving euphoria-highlight the influence of internal market dynamics like the MVRV Z-score .