Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Below $85K-Bear Market Start or Cyclical Correction Before 2026?

Bitcoin's price has plunged below key support levels, sparking widespread bearish sentiment among traders and analysts. As of late November 2025, BTC/USD trades around $85,000, having collapsed from an all-time high of $126,000 in October. The selloff, triggered by a combination of geopolitical tensions, ETF outflows, and a stablecoin liquidity crisis, erased over $1 trillion from the crypto market in six weeks. Analysts now debate whether this marks the start of a deeper bear market or a cyclical correction ahead of a potential 2026 rebound according to price predictions.

The recent crash followed a record $19.2 billion in liquidations on October 10, 2025, after the Trump administration's abrupt tariff threats triggered a global risk-off move according to crypto news reports. This event, compounded by a stablecoin misprint and a warning from MSCI about excluding digital-asset-heavy companies from indices, sent Bitcoin spiraling. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, once a pillar of bullish momentum, have seen $3.79 billion in net outflows in November, with BlackRock's IBIT suffering a $523 million single-day redemption according to market data.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has broken below an ascending parallel channel that had supported its price for two years, with some analysts predicting a potential drop to $70,000–$75,000 as buyers accumulate in the first half of 2026. On-chain metrics also show elevated exchange reserves and declining retail participation, signaling further downward pressure.

Despite the gloom, some analysts highlight potential catalysts for a reversal. On-chain data from Santiment suggests that geopolitical shocks-such as the 2024 Israel-Palestine conflict and 2025 Ukraine-Russia tensions-have historically acted as long-term bullish triggers. These events, while initially causing price dips, often lead to sharp recoveries as panic-driven selling is liquidated. For example, the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict drove BTC to a brief $98,000 low before rallying to a new all-time high.

Institutional adoption also offers a counterweight. Harvard University has increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $443 million, while Japan's Metaplanet allocated ¥15 billion ($100+ million) for BTC purchases in late 2025 according to market reports. Meanwhile, companies like Hyperscale Data and KindlyMD continue to expand their Bitcoin treasuries, with the latter holding 5,398 BTC as of November 2025 according to financial data. These moves suggest that institutional players view dips as strategic entry points rather than reasons to exit the asset class according to market analysis.

Price forecasts for 2025 remain deeply divided. Ultra-bullish analysts, including Standard Chartered and Bitwise, maintain a $150,000–$200,000 target for year-end 2025, citing potential Fed rate cuts and sustained institutional demand. Conversely, neutral-to-bearish views dominate, with Kraken's models projecting BTC to trade sideways near $85,000.

Max Keiser, a vocal Bitcoin advocate, argues that the recent selloff has concluded and accumulation is now underway. He points to a rare net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in late November as evidence that "distribution ends and accumulation begins," potentially setting the stage for a 2025 all-time high according to his analysis. Meanwhile, veteran chartist Peter Brandt warns of a possible drop to $58,000 before a multi-year rally resumes.

Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on several key factors. A resumption of ETF inflows, a Fed rate cut, or renewed institutional buying could spark a rebound. However, risks persist, including macroeconomic shocks, regulatory shifts, and further leverage-driven liquidations.

As the market consolidates, investors are advised to treat price forecasts as scenarios rather than certainties. The interplay between short-term volatility and long-term fundamentals - such as the link between Bitcoin and global M2 money supply growth - will likely determine whether 2026 sees a sustained bullish resurgence. For now, the crypto world remains poised between despair and cautious optimism, awaiting the next catalyst to tip the scales.