Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $80K Crucible: Capitulation Exhausted or Bear Market Acceleration?

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, has asserted that Bitcoin (BTC) found its cycle floor at $80,000 last week, signaling a potential rebound in the near term. His analysis aligns with broader market observations that liquidity shifts and capitulation patterns suggest a high-probability bottom for the cryptocurrency. Key data points, including historical capitulation-volume models and onchain metrics, reinforce the view that BTC's recent 35% drawdown marks a critical inflection point.

A Bitcoin analyst known as Astronomer cited a 91% probability that BTC will not close weekly below current lows, with a 75% chance the bull market remains intact. The analyst's model, based on a "layered rule-of-three" for weekly candles, identified prior cycle bottoms when three consecutive high-volume red candles preceded reversals. Across 11 historical instances, eight led to new all-time highs, while only one resulted in sustained downside. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's Network Value to Transaction (NVT) golden cross dipped to -1.6, typically indicating undervaluation and short-term mean-reversion opportunities, though traders warned against leveraging in volatile conditions.

Hayes' argument hinges on macroeconomic liquidity trends. He cited the Federal Reserve's impending halt of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 and rising U.S. bank lending as catalysts for improved liquidity. "We chop below $90K, maybe a stab into the low $80Ks, but $80K holds," Hayes stated, emphasizing liquidity expansion over sentiment as the driver for a potential rebound. Onchain data supported this narrative, with BTC registering its largest net realized loss since the FTX collapse but quickly flipping to positive territory-a sign that forced selling may have been flushed out.

However, caution persists. Analysts warn that a drop below $80,000 could trigger "max pain" for investors, accelerating selling and potentially pushing BTC toward $60,000. Short-term holders have already offloaded 62,000 BTC at a loss, with November 22's exchange inflows hitting $81,000-the largest since mid-July. While some argue this reflects "peak fear behavior" and seller exhaustion, others stress that a sustained rebound hinges on whether the current correction is a mid-cycle adjustment or the start of a deeper bear phase.

Bitcoin's price as of November 24 stood at $86,786, having fluctuated between $80,760 and $111,700 in recent weeks. The broader crypto market mirrored BTC's volatility, with Ethereum and altcoins like XRP and Solana showing mixed recovery signals. Meanwhile, Hayes' recent onchain activity in ENA tokens-buying 873,671 ENA at $0.281 after selling 5 million at $0.275-highlighted his active participation in crypto liquidity dynamics.

The debate underscores a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. With liquidity conditions poised to shift and sentiment oscillating between capitulation and optimism, the $80,000 level remains a focal point. As Hayes and analysts await the Fed's QT halt and macroeconomic clarity, the coming weeks could determine whether this marks the start of a new bull leg or a deeper consolidation phase.