Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Theory Dead After 54% Forecast Error Institutional Shifts

Bitcoin Cycle Theory Declared Obsolete After Bull Market Misstep

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has publicly acknowledged the failure of his April bear market forecast, which incorrectly predicted a 54% decline in Bitcoin’s price. The error, made as the asset surged to $123,236 by July, has prompted Ju to declare the long-standing Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory obsolete. Traditionally, the theory relied on patterns tied to halving events and whale activity, with large investors offloading assets to retail traders during bull cycles. However, Ju argues that institutional adoption and structural shifts in investor behavior have disrupted these dynamics [1].

Ju’s analysis highlights a transition from retail-driven cycles to a model where institutional and treasury-backed entities now absorb Bitcoin holdings previously targeted by individual investors. He noted that large holders increasingly transfer assets to long-term institutional investors rather than retail markets, rendering traditional metrics—such as whale accumulation patterns—ineffective [5]. This shift, he explained, reflects a maturing market where macroeconomic factors like M2 money supply growth and institutional capital strategies now dominate price drivers [7].

The reevaluation has sparked debate among analysts. While Ju and CryptoQuant emphasize institutional influence, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer recently reaffirmed that Bitcoin still aligns with its four-year cycle pattern. Similarly, Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysts predict a potential price peak around October 2025, mirroring historical trends [7]. Analyst Ran Neer has also drawn parallels between current conditions and prior bull phases, suggesting market dynamics could extend into late 2025 [8]. These contrasting views underscore a growing divide in how experts interpret Bitcoin’s trajectory.

For investors, Ju advises caution against relying on outdated frameworks. He emphasized that hedge funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds are now pivotal in shaping Bitcoin’s direction, marking a departure from speculative retail-driven growth [9]. CryptoQuant has adapted its on-chain tools to monitor institutional inflows and network metrics, moving away from whale activity tracking. Ju pledged to prioritize data-driven insights over predictive models, acknowledging past missteps in his bearish forecasts [10].

Market reactions remain mixed. Some view the shift as bullish for sustained growth, while others warn of challenges for retail traders dependent on cycle-based strategies. As Bitcoin approaches record highs and regulatory frameworks evolve, the reevaluation of the 4-year cycle theory reflects broader institutional adoption trends. However, the absence of a unified analytical framework highlights the need for adaptive strategies in a market increasingly shaped by macroeconomic forces rather than retail sentiment [9].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)

[2] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[5] [CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Obsolete](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-cryptoquant-ceo-declares-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-obsolete-due-institutional-adoption-2507/)

[7] [Market Braces for a New Bitcoin All-time High as Global M2 Reaches Record High](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/market-braces-for-a-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-global-m2-reaches-record-high/)

[8] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Be Changing as Analyst Revises](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604880117)

[9] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[10] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)