Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Faces Test as Bulls Eye $185K+ Amid Shifting Market Dynamics

Bitcoin's four-year cycle, a framework that has historically guided its price trajectory, remains a focal point for veteran trader Peter Brandt as he anticipates a continuation of the bull trend. According to Brandt, the current cycle's low on November 9, 2022, and the halving on April 20, 2024, establish a 533-day pattern. Adding 533 days post-halving points to early October 2025, aligning with Bitcoin's recent all-time high above $126,100 Cointelegraph^[1]. While the cycle suggests a potential peak, Brandt cautions that deviations could lead to "explosive" price moves beyond $150,000, with a target of $185,000 if the market breaks its historical pattern InsideBitcoins^[2]. This view is echoed by other analysts, including Rekt Capital, who predict October as a likely peak month if the 2020 cycle repeats TheCoinRepublic^[3].

Bitcoin's technical indicators reinforce the bullish case. On-chain metrics show a decline in exchange balances, signaling long-term holder dominance, while active addresses and transaction counts have risen, reflecting growing network demand InsideBitcoins^[4]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.88 and a bullish MACD suggest sustained momentum, with key resistance levels at $126,000 and $135,000 Cointelegraph^[5]. Institutional adoption and ETF inflows are also cited as tailwinds, with corporate and sovereign treasury participation expected to further support the price TheCoinRepublic^[6].

Beyond Bitcoin, Brandt has identified Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Stellar (XLM) as potential rebound candidates. XLM, in particular, has drawn attention for its technical setup. Brandt highlighted an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and emphasized the $1 resistance level as critical for a breakout. XLM's open interest increased by 3.40% in 24 hours, indicating rising trader interest, and its price surged nearly 60% in a week CoinCentral^[7]. Analyst Solberg Invest added that XLM's recent 80% rally above $0.43 support suggests a potential target of $0.60 TheCurrencyAnalytics^[8]. For Ethereum, Brandt described it as "ready to rock and roll," noting a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout Coingape^[9]. XRP, though recently tested at $2.20, is seen as a "minor reaction" in a broader bullish trend, with $3.00 as a near-term target U.Today^[10].

The debate over Bitcoin's four-year cycle persists amid evolving market dynamics. While historical patterns have held for three cycles, Brandt acknowledges that cycles "eventually change." However, he argues that betting against a three-for-three-perfect record should be approached cautiously Cointelegraph^[11]. Economist Timothy Peterson estimates a 50% chance Bitcoin closes October above $140,000, while more aggressive projections from Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett suggest $250,000 by year-end TheCoinRepublic^[12].