Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Ends as Institutions Drive Steady Growth

Bitcoin's four-year price cycle, a historical framework for predicting its market peaks and corrections, is nearing a pivotal turning point as multiple analysts and institutional observers align on a potential cycle top in late 2025 or early 2026. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in a recent interview, highlighted that Bitcoin's current cycle mirrors past patterns, with a local top potentially arriving within months. "Cycles typically end in Q4 of the post-halving year," Cowen noted, citing historical precedents from 2013, 2017, and 2021. The analyst emphasized a recurring pattern of a high in August, followed by a September low, with the September bottom possibly already in place. If this trend holds, the final cycle peak could materialize by year-end.

Supporting this view, data from Glassnode and TradingView indicate Bitcoin's price action since its November 2022 low aligns closely with the 2021 cycle, characterized by a steady growth phase and weakening momentum indicators near the top. The RSI and MACD, key technical indicators, have shown bearish divergences, suggesting a potential reversal if the price fails to break above current levels. Analysts project the cycle peak to occur between October and November 2025, with price targets ranging from $150,000 to $250,000, depending on whether the cycle follows the more gradual 2021 pattern or the parabolic 2017 surge.

However, the traditional four-year cycle is showing signs of disruption. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic factors are reshaping Bitcoin's dynamics. Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management stated, "The 4-year cycle is over," attributing this to unprecedented institutional inflows via spot ETFs, corporate treasury purchases, and a shift toward long-term holding strategies. For example, companies like MicroStrategy and public corporations have accumulated over 3 million BTC, representing ~15% of the total supply by early 2025. These "strong hands" are expected to absorb volatility, reducing the likelihood of steep corrections seen in previous cycles.

Price predictions from veteran traders add further nuance. Peter Brandt, a prominent technical analyst, suggested Bitcoin could surge to $185,000 if it breaks through its cycle top, with some bullish scenarios projecting $280,000 by year-end 2025. Brandt's analysis hinges on the 533-day symmetry between the November 2022 low and the April 2024 halving, pointing to October 2025 as a critical threshold. Meanwhile, other analysts like Rekt Capital and Timothy Peterson anticipate a peak in October 2025, with Bitcoin potentially closing the month above $140,000.

On-chain data reinforces a bullish setup. Exchange balances have sharply declined, signaling increased private wallet holdings, while active addresses and transaction volumes have surged, reflecting robust network demand. A short squeeze in late September 2025, where $330 million in bearish positions were liquidated, further solidified Bitcoin's upward trajectory. Technical indicators, including a bullish MACD and RSI at 61.88, suggest continued momentum, with key resistance levels at $126,000 and $135,000.

Despite these positives, risks remain. A correction in late 2025 or early 2026 is widely anticipated, with historical cycles showing ~70–80% drawdowns post-peak. However, analysts argue that institutional participation and ETF-driven demand could moderate the severity of any downturn. Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol noted that corrections in this cycle have been milder (around 26% vs. 84% in 2017), with potential pullbacks limited to 30–50% in response to macroeconomic shocks or regulatory shifts.

The broader implications extend beyond price. As Bitcoin's market matures, its role as a macro-asset is cementing, with growing integration into traditional finance. The U.S. government's January 2025 executive order, designating digital assets a national priority, has accelerated institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. This policy shift, combined with corporate treasury strategies and stablecoin integration, could redefine Bitcoin's volatility profile, replacing retail-driven hype cycles with steadier, long-term growth.

Source: [1] The Daily Hodl (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/18/heres-when-bitcoin-could-hit-the-cycle-top-if-history-repeats-itself-according-to-analyst-benjamin-cowen/) [2] CCN (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-4-year-cycle/) [4] CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/bitcoin-btc-price-cycle-might-be-breaking.html?msockid=2037afd7633f6f3235a2b95762526efd) [5] Inside Bitcoins (https://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-peter-brandt-says-btc-could-explode-to-185000-if-it-doesnt-top-out-this-week) [8] BitFinance (https://bitfinance.substack.com/p/is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-about-to)