Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2025 $200K Hurdle: Standard Chartered's Bold Call vs. Market Doubts

Standard Chartered has reiterated a bullish stance on Bitcoin, projecting the cryptocurrency could reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025 and potentially surge to $200,000 by year-end. The forecasts, attributed to the bank's digital assets research head Geoff Kendrick, hinge on macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption, and structural shifts in the crypto markettitle1^[1]. The predictions align with broader industry trends, including record inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing role of corporate treasuries as institutional holderstitle2^[2].

The bank cited ETF inflows as a critical driver, with Bitcoin ETFs and treasury companies accumulating 245,000 BTC in Q2 2025-a figure marking the second-highest quarterly uptake on recordtitle3^[3]. Standard Chartered also highlighted the Genius Act, a U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins, as a potential catalyst for attracting new crypto investors. Additionally, the bank emphasized Bitcoin's positive correlation with U.S. Treasury term premiums, which have risen amid uncertainty surrounding the prolonged U.S. government shutdowntitle1^[1].

The traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, historically tied to price surges followed by corrections, is increasingly seen as less deterministic. Analysts, including Standard Chartered, argue that institutional flows and macroeconomic conditions now outweigh the halving's influence. For instance, institutional investors and corporations collectively held over 1.29 million BTC by mid-2025, or 6% of the total supply, through ETFs and corporate treasuriestitle4^[4]. This shift has reduced Bitcoin's volatility relative to past cycles, with the asset's correlation to equities and bonds strengtheningtitle5^[5].

Data from Grayscale and Binance Research underscore the institutionalization of Bitcoin. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $54.4 billion in net inflows since their 2024 approval, with BlackRock's IBIT dominating 52.6% of the market by August 2025title6^[6]. Corporate adoption has also accelerated, with over 100 publicly listed firms holding approximately 1 million BTC-a trend pioneered by companies like MicroStrategy and recently expanded by entities such as Twenty One and KindlyMDtitle4^[4].

While Standard Chartered's forecasts are optimistic, the market remains subject to volatility. Polymarket odds suggest only a 7% probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end and a 32% chance of hitting $135,000 by October 2025title1^[1]. Critics, including crypto analyst Rekt Capital, warn that historical patterns could see a peak in October 2025, followed by a correction. Additionally, the bank previously projected a $120,000 target for Q2 2025, which Bitcoin did not reach, raising questions about the accuracy of its forecaststitle3^[3].

The broader crypto ecosystem is also evolving. Binance Research noted that Bitcoin's dominance in the market has eased to 57.2% from a peak of 65.1%, signaling potential capital rotation into altcoinstitle7^[7]. Ethereum staking hit a record 35.8 million ETH, while decentralized exchanges captured 23.1% of spot trading volume, reflecting structural shifts in liquidity dynamicstitle7^[7].

Standard Chartered's predictions encapsulate a market at a crossroads: one where historical narratives of scarcity and halving cycles are being redefined by institutional participation, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic forces. As the bank emphasized, Bitcoin's role as a hedge against systemic risks-exemplified by its performance during the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse-further cements its appeal in a risk-averse environmenttitle4^[4].