Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $165k Target Signals Shift from Gold to Digital Safe Haven

JPMorgan Chase has revised its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target to $165,000, reflecting a 31% increase from its August forecast of $126,000. This adjustment underscores the bank's evolving view of Bitcoin's valuation, which it now considers undervalued by $46,000 relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. The target comes as Bitcoin surges past $120,000, driven by robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and a narrowing volatility gap with gold. JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, argue that Bitcoin's current $2.3 trillion market cap could expand by 42% to align with gold's $6 trillion in private investments, implying the $165,000 target. This marks a reversal from the bank's late-2024 assessment, which deemed Bitcoin overvalued by $36,000 compared to gold.

The bank's analysis highlights Bitcoin's improving risk profile, with the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio dropping below 2.0. This means Bitcoin now requires only 1.85 times the risk capital of gold, making it increasingly attractive for conservative portfolios. Gold's recent rally-up 48% year-to-date-has amplified Bitcoin's relative appeal, particularly as retail investors dominate ETF inflows. JPMorgan notes that while institutions remain active in CME futures, ETF data reveals retail investors are the primary drivers of the "debasement trade," where capital flows into scarce assets to hedge against fiat currency erosion. This trend aligns with historical safe-haven flows, positioning Bitcoin alongside gold amid geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve policy further bolsters Bitcoin's appeal. The Fed's September rate cut to 4%-4.25% and projected additional easing through 2026 support risk assets, including crypto. Softer U.S. jobs data and expectations of further cuts have increased the likelihood of an October reduction, fostering liquidity that favors Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. JPMorgan analysts caution that Fed independence concerns, exacerbated by political pressures, amplify debasement fears, driving capital toward decentralized alternatives. The broader easing trajectory-potentially dropping rates below 3% by late 2026-could supercharge Bitcoin's rally.

JPMorgan's $165,000 target is part of a broader bullish consensus among financial institutions. Citigroup forecasts a more conservative $133,000, citing steady ETF inflows and digital treasury allocations, while Standard Chartered projects a $200,000 peak by year-end. VanEck anticipates $180,000 by 2025, leveraging post-halving supply dynamics and ETF demand. These forecasts reflect a maturing market, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs managing over $163.5 billion in assets by October 2025. Weekly inflows averaged $500 million, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone attracting $1.18 billion on October 3, marking one of the largest single-day inflows in ETF history.

The surge in ETF activity has created a supply shock, as ETF absorption outpaces new Bitcoin issuance by nearly 3x. On-chain data shows centralized exchange holdings at a six-year low, indicating strong long-term holding strategies. This dynamic, combined with Bitcoin's historically strong Q4 performance-dubbed "Uptober"-has positioned the asset for further gains. Analysts note that Bitcoin's cycle, historically peaking 365–550 days post-halving, could extend into 2026 due to sustained institutional demand and macroeconomic tailwinds. The U.S. dollar's weakening and improved global liquidity conditions are cited as key catalysts for a parabolic move similar to the 2020–2021 bull run.

JPMorgan's revised target signals institutional validation of Bitcoin's role in diversified portfolios. While the $165,000 threshold depends on the persistence of the debasement trade and capital rotation from gold, the trajectory highlights Bitcoin's integration into global finance. Other banks' forecasts, ranging from $133,000 to $200,000, reflect varying assumptions about macroeconomic conditions and regulatory clarity. As ETF inflows continue to outpace gold's $19.2 billion year-to-date inflows, Bitcoin ETFs have captured 70% of gold's net inflows, marking a turning point for hard asset ETFs. This shift underscores Bitcoin's transition from speculative asset to strategic store of value.

Source: [1] CoinReporter.io (https://www.coinreporter.io/2025/10/jpmorgan-raises-bitcoin-target-to-165k-amid-debasement-trade/)

[2] TheCCPress.com (https://theccpress.com/jpmorgan-bitcoin-target-165k-2025/)

[3] CoinCentral.com (https://coincentral.com/jpmorgan-raises-bitcoin-price-target-to-165000-as-btc-crosses-122000/)

[4] Cointelegraph.com (https://cointelegraph.com/news/jpmorgan-citi-bitcoin-q4-boom-btc-price-targets)

[5] Tradebrains.in (https://tradebrains.in/jpmorgan-citi-standard-chartered-predict-bitcoin-could-surge-up-to-61-by-2025/)

[6] Markets.FinancialContent.com (https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-8-bitcoin-etfs-ignite-institutional-gold-rush-record-inflows-propel-crypto-to-new-heights)