Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $150K Path: Macro Tailwinds and Surging ETF Inflows

Bitcoin's price trajectory is drawing increasing attention as analysts and on-chain metrics point to a potential surge toward $150,000 by late 2025. This projection is supported by a combination of macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional demand, and technical indicators suggesting sustained bullish momentum. While short-term corrections and volatility remain risks, the cumulative evidence from multiple models and market participants underscores a strong case for higher prices.

Bitcoin's recent performance above $120,000 has been fueled by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts and a significant short squeeze in the derivatives market. Analysts note that the Federal Reserve's potential reduction of rates to 3.50% or lower by January 2026 has boosted demand for non-dividend-paying assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin's correlation with gold-a traditional inflation hedge-has strengthened, with gold rising 16% over six weeks. On-chain data further reinforces this optimism: the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model indicates that Bitcoin has broken through key resistance levels, with immediate targets at $125,000 and medium-term projections at $138,800.

Institutional participation has surged, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording over $1.19 billion in inflows on the day Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,198. Futures open interest across all exchanges reached $220 billion by September 2025, peaking at $45.3 billion by October 3, a record that underscores growing confidence in regulated institutional participation. This influx of capital has enhanced liquidity and reinforced Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge against inflation, with experts like veteran investor Dan Tapiero highlighting global capital flows shifting toward Bitcoin as a superior store of value compared to fiat currencies.

While Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers in overbought territory, analysts caution that a short-term correction could precede a sustained rally. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe identifies an ideal accumulation zone between $119,500 and $120,000, with deeper supports at $116,800 and $114,755. Van de Poppe and others argue that dips below $121,500 could present entry points for long-term investors ahead of a $150,000 target. Meanwhile, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests a decisive move above $116,700 would confirm a return to bullish conditions, potentially unlocking a valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000.

Despite the bullish outlook, elevated leverage in derivatives markets introduces risks. Bitcoin's futures open interest has created a "liquidation time bomb," with nearly $15 billion in long positions at risk if prices fall to $106,500. Short-term holders (STHs) have also faced panic selling, with 50,000 BTC sold at a loss in recent weeks. However, this selling pressure may signal a market bottom, as distressed liquidations often precede renewed buying interest. Analysts like Michael Saylor remain confident, citing structural demand shifts and institutional accumulation as key drivers.

The convergence of macroeconomic optimism, institutional adoption, and technical strength positions Bitcoin for a potential $150,000 target. While short-term volatility and corrections are likely, the broader narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value remains intact. Market participants are advised to monitor key resistance levels, ETF inflows, and on-chain metrics to navigate the evolving landscape.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/03/bitcoin-targets-125k-as-macro-conditions-and-mvrv-model-signal-strong-breakout/)

[2] Bitcoin Price Prediction Bombshell (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-prediction-bombshell)

[3] Bitcoin to USD200K by End of 2025: This Cycle Indicator Points to Explosive Months Ahead (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/03/bitcoin-to-usd200k-by-end-of-2025-this-cycle-indicator-points-to-explosive-months-ahead)

[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025, What Next For BTC Price (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-what-next-for-btc-price/)

[5] Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Soars Past $220 Billion, Signaling Unprecedented Institutional Influx (https://markets.financialcontent.com/wedbush/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-6-bitcoin-futures-open-interest-soars-past-220-billion-signaling-unprecedented-institutional-influx)

[6] Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sell At Loss: Panic Selling Hits 50K BTC (https://www.coin-views.com/2025/07/bitcoin-short-term-holders-sell-at-loss.html)