Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $116K Crossroads: Fractals, Fed Moves, and the Fight for $120K

Bitcoin’s recent price action has generated speculation about whether it can break through the $120,000 level amid expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. The cryptocurrency climbed above $113,000 on Friday, but encountered significant selling pressure at higher levels, as evidenced by the long wick on the candlestick chart. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, a key resistance level to watch for Bitcoin is $116,000. If buyers manage to push past that threshold, it could signal the start of a new upward trend. On the other hand, a breakdown below $104,000 would increase the risk of a pullback to the $93,000–$95,000 range.

The anticipated Fed rate cut—widely expected at the September 16–17 meeting—has been reinforced by the latest jobs data, which showed weaker-than-expected hiring in August. The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the 75,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, marking the third consecutive month of slowing job growth. As a result, financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a 14% probability of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point reduction, pushing the funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4%. This shift reflects a growing concern among Fed officials that the risks of a weak labor market outweigh the pressure from persistently high inflation.

Analysts argue that lower interest rates could reduce borrowing costs, potentially stimulating investment and economic activity. For the crypto market, historically, lower interest rates have often led to increased demand for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted in a social media post that Bitcoin’s fractal cycle may end in October, with a possible short-term move to $140,000 before potentially entering a bear market in 2026 if it peaks then. However, with strong demand from exchange-traded funds and institutional investors, the market remains in a state of flux.

Bitcoin’s price has oscillated around key moving averages, such as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A sustained move above the $115,304 SMA would be a strong bullish signal, potentially leading to a test of the $120,000 level. Conversely, a breakdown below $109,000 could initiate a downward correction. The market is closely watching whether bulls can maintain control of these critical levels.

In parallel, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, BNB, and Solana have also shown mixed signals, with some forming potential bullish or bearish patterns. While Bitcoin remains the focal point of the market, the broader altcoin sector is also under scrutiny as traders assess whether the Fed’s actions will catalyze a broader market upturn or merely trigger a short-lived bounce.

Source: [1] BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, SUI (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-9-5-btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-link-hype-sui) [2] Fed Rate Cut Now Appears Certain After Weak Jobs Report (https://www.investopedia.com/job-report-seals-federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-in-september-11804268) [3] Jobs slowdown seals Fed rate cut as White House criticizes (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-slowdown-seals-fed-rate-cut-as-white-house-criticizes-powell-for-not-acting-sooner-150805909.html)