Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $115K Battleground: ETFs vs. Trade War Pressures

Bitcoin closed the week at $115,128 after a sharp decline triggered by U.S.-China trade tensions, with key support at $105K holding but bearish sentiment dominating the market. The price plummeted to $105,617 on October 10–11 following President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, liquidating $19–20 billion in crypto positions and causing exchange outages. While the market stabilized by October 12, the price remained below critical resistance at $118,350, indicating sustained bearish control Bitcoin Magazine^[1].

The crash occurred against a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish policy, including a 0.25% rate cut in September 2025 and anticipated further cuts, has historically supported Bitcoin's rally as an inflation hedge. However, geopolitical risks, such as the U.S. government shutdown and trade-war rhetoric, introduced volatility. Gold spiked to record highs during the crash, reflecting a "flight to safety" Coindesk^[2].

Institutional adoption continues to drive Bitcoin's fundamentals. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries now hold 12.2% of all BTC supply, with record inflows of $5.95 billion in early October, including $5 billion in U.S. ETFs. This institutional accumulation, combined with ETF approvals streamlined by the SEC, has deepened market liquidity and reduced volatility TS2.Tech^[3].

Bitcoin's technical indicators remain mixed. The price rebounded from $105K, a critical support level, but oscillators on daily charts remain bearish. A Fibonacci retracement analysis highlights key thresholds: bulls aim to retake $118,350 (0.618 level), while a close above $121,800 (0.786 level) could signal new highs. Conversely, a breakdown below $110,500 risks retesting $105K, with further declines to $96K posing a threat to the bull market Cryptopolitan^[4].

The price also hit the lower trend line of a broadening wedge pattern, suggesting potential for a rebound toward $127K or a breakdown into the $80K range. Bulls face an uphill battle to push above $122K, with the $115K–$118K range acting as a pivotal battleground Bitcoin Magazine^[5].

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. Bullish forecasts, including Standard Chartered's $300K target by 2026 and ARK Invest's $200K–$250K range, hinge on continued Fed easing and ETF-driven demand. Conversely, bearish scenarios warn of a 2026 correction, with Citigroup projecting a potential drop to $83K under recessionary conditions ARK Invest Report^[6].

On-chain data highlights a tight supply band, with 30% of Bitcoin last traded within ±15% of current prices. This clustering suggests sharp volatility if sentiment shifts. Institutional absorption and ETF inflows provide a floor, but overbought technical signals and macroeconomic uncertainty temper near-term optimism Glassnode Analysis^[7].

Global regulatory clarity is improving, with the U.S. GENIUS Act and EU's MiCA framework reducing uncertainty for crypto firms. However, geopolitical tensions and inflation trends remain critical risks. If U.S.-China trade disputes escalate or Fed cuts stall, Bitcoin could face renewed downward pressure.

Bitcoin's near-term outlook hinges on its ability to hold above $110K–$115K. While institutional demand and ETF inflows provide a bullish foundation, macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical risks could prolong consolidation. Investors should monitor the Fed's October 29 rate decision and the U.S.-China trade timeline, as these factors will likely dictate the next major price move CoinMarketCap^[8].