Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $110K Holdup: ETF Divergence and Profit-Taking Set the Stage for a Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has stabilized between $110,000 and $112,000 as on-chain activity declines and exchange net outflows increase ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data and a key options expiry event. The cryptocurrency is currently consolidating after reaching intraday highs of $113,200 earlier in the week, with traders closely monitoring both institutional flows and long-term holder behavior. On-chain metrics suggest a tightening supply environment, with Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges at four times the rate of newly mined coins [1].

The recent price action has been influenced by mixed flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT product has absorbed $238 million in a single day and now holds over $70 billion in assets, while other major providers such as Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB faced outflows of $117 million and $125 million, respectively. This divergence highlights the uneven distribution of demand across the ETF landscape [1]. Despite the outflows, the broader trend shows continued institutional accumulation, supported by shrinking exchange balances and elevated corporate treasury holdings, with entities like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holding over 636,505 BTC [1].

A notable development is the recent realization of $2.46 billion in profits by long-term holders on September 5, driven by the sale of BTC held for 2–5 years. This level of selling is the highest since June and has historically been a precursor to short-term volatility. However, it also suggests that overhead supply is being cleared, potentially setting the stage for a new upward move [1]. Analysts have noted that such profit-taking is often seen at turning points in the market cycle, especially when combined with macroeconomic catalysts.

The U.S. macroeconomic environment has also played a role in shaping Bitcoin’s recent performance. The August nonfarm payrolls report added just 22,000 jobs, well below the expected 75,000, and triggered a shift in market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Markets now fully price in a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 12% probability of a 50 basis point cut. This dovish pivot has supported risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, which saw a brief spike above $113,200 following the data release [1].

Technically, BTC-USD is forming an ascending triangle on the 4-hour chart, with key resistance at $113,400 and support at $108,770. The 200-SMA acts as a pivot near $112,606, and RSI at 50 indicates consolidation with mild bullish divergence. On a weekly timeframe, the price remains within a rising channel, with Fibonacci projections extending to $171,000 and $231,000, while structural support lies between $95,000 and $100,000. A breakout above $113,400 could open the door to further gains [1].

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Cycle-based models suggest a possible rally in Q4, with some pointing to July as a historical bottom in post-election years. However, skeptics argue that traditional cycle patterns are less predictive in a market increasingly influenced by institutional derivatives and ETF adoption. Surveys indicate that nearly 70% of traders expect Bitcoin to retest the $105,000 level before advancing, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding both fundamental and technical interpretations of the current environment [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Holds $110K as ETF Flows, Fed Policy, and Profit-Taking Collide (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-holds-110k-usd)