Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $110K Fate: A Weathervane for Fiat Liquidity Shifts

Bitcoin's price trajectory in late 2025 has sparked intense debate among analysts, traders, and institutional investors, with conflicting forecasts emerging as the asset trades near $86,470, down 33% from its October all-time high of $126,275 according to analysts. The question of whether Bitcoin can rebound to $110,000 by December hinges on macroeconomic dynamics, technical indicators, and divergent institutional strategies, creating a complex landscape for market participants.

The recent selloff has been driven by a confluence of factors. Tightening liquidity, ETF outflows exceeding $4.3 billion, and the collapse of leveraged positions have pressured Bitcoin, while the Federal Reserve's uncertain stance on rate cuts adds macroeconomic volatility. CME FedWatch data now shows a 71% probability of a December rate cut, but internal Fed dissent-such as Governor Michael Barr's caution about inflation remaining near 3%-has kept dollar liquidity constrained. Arthur Hayes, a prominent crypto analyst, argues that Bitcoin could rally to $200,000–$250,000 if policymakers intervene to stabilize markets, though this scenario depends on a liquidity-driven reversal according to market analysis.

Technical analysis paints a mixed picture. A "death cross" confirmed on November 16-where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day MA-signals bearish momentum, a pattern historically preceding deep corrections of 64–71%. On-chain data reveals $800 million in realized losses from short-term holders, while the Fear & Greed Index sits at an extreme fear level of 12. Key support levels include $80,600 (a seven-month low) and $74,000 (the April 2025 low). A breakdown below $80K could trigger further declines, but bulls argue that a sustained rebound above $96,000 could reignite a rally toward $100K–$110K.

Institutional activity adds another layer of complexity. ETF redemptions have accelerated, with $3.5 billion in November outflows alone, reflecting fading risk appetite as AI stocks enter correction territory. Meanwhile, longer-term players are accumulating: whale wallets above 10,000 BTC have resumed buying near $80K–$82K, and Harvard University recently increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 250%. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Japanese firm Metaplanet also signal institutional confidence, treating Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset according to market reports.

Expert forecasts span a wide range. Ultra-bullish scenarios, including $150,000–$225,000 targets from Standard Chartered and Bitwise, assume continued Fed easing and renewed ETF inflows. A more moderate base case envisions consolidation between $80K–$110K, with selective inflows and institutional accumulation supporting a gradual rebound according to analysts. Bearish analyses, however, warn of a deeper correction to $58,000–$74,000 before eventual recovery, citing historical precedents of 70%+ drawdowns.

The December outcome will likely depend on three factors: the timing of Fed rate cuts, the direction of ETF flows, and whether institutional buyers continue to treat Bitcoin as a long-term asset. While a $110K rebound is possible if liquidity improves and short-term shorts are squeezed, the path remains fraught with risks, including macro shocks, regulatory shifts, or further deleveraging. As one strategist notes, "Bitcoin remains a free-market weathervane for fiat liquidity-falling before policy pivots and rallying once easing resumes".