Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Path: Seasonal Bulls Clash With Macroeconomic Bears

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi have assigned conflicting probabilities for Bitcoin's path above $100,000 in 2025, reflecting a market grappling with divergent macroeconomic signals and historical volatility. Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, has revised his bullish stance, now forecasting a potential $125,100 peak by year-end instead of the earlier $250,000 target. His updated outlook acknowledges recent market pressures, including a $19 billion liquidation event following U.S. policy announcements and Bitcoin's decline below $90,000 for six consecutive days according to reports. Yet Lee remains cautiously optimistic, citing Bitcoin's historical tendency to concentrate gains in just 10 key trading days annually, which accounted for a 52% return in 2024 compared to -15% in other periods.

The renewed focus on Bitcoin's seasonal performance adds nuance to the debate. According to CoinGlass data, November has historically been the strongest month for the asset since 2013, offering a potential catalyst for a rebound. Recent technical analysis supports this view: Bitcoin's price held above $90,000 through the Thanksgiving holiday, with traders identifying $97,000–$98,000 as a critical liquidity pocket after heavy selling earlier in the year. On-chain metrics also suggest a shift in momentum, with spot markets entering recovery mode as taker cumulative volume delta edged toward neutral territory.

However, the path to $100,000 remains uncertain. Paul Krugman linked Bitcoin's recent weakness to waning public support for Donald Trump, a key proponent of crypto-friendly policies. Meanwhile, the asset's correlation with U.S. dollar strength and global trade policies continues to complicate forecasts. Regulatory developments further muddy the waters: Polymarket received CFTC approval to offer U.S. prediction markets, while Kalshi faces a Nevada regulatory hurdle requiring a gaming license.

Market participants are split on Bitcoin's trajectory. While Lee and others emphasize resilience, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has called for "extraordinary events" to justify a $250,000 price tag. Conversely, Glassnode analysts highlight Bitcoin's negative correlation with stablecoin activity, suggesting volatility could intensify as stablecoin usage shifts.

The coming weeks will be pivotal. With November historically favoring Bitcoin and the asset's 2025 opening level around $93,000 in play, traders are bracing for a critical test of support and resistance. For now, the market remains a tug-of-war between bullish seasonal patterns and bearish macroeconomic headwinds, with prediction markets serving as a barometer of this uncertainty.