Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100k Battleground: Death Cross Looms as Bulls and Bears Clash

Bitcoin retested critical support levels below $100,000 this week, raising concerns about a potential deeper correction as technical indicators and historical patterns suggest heightened volatility. The cryptocurrency has fallen below its 365-day moving average (MA) of $102,000-a key psychological and technical benchmark-and now faces scrutiny as traders weigh whether this marks a cyclical bottom or the start of a prolonged downturn according to analysis. Analysts highlight the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $100,896 as a near-term pivot point, with a breach likely to accelerate a drop toward the 100-week EMA at $85,213 per technical analysis.

The approaching "death cross," where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is expected to cross below the 200-day SMA within days, has intensified market anxiety. This pattern, historically associated with bear market bottoms, has occurred eight times since 2018, with Bitcoin typically rebounding 45% within weeks as historical data shows. However, 2025's macroeconomic landscape differs from past cycles, with some analysts cautioning that a 30% decline could push BTC toward $70,000 if the death cross materializes according to market forecasts.

Market structure also reveals mixed signals. Bitcoin's price action between $100,000 and $103,000 has become a battleground for buyers and sellers, with a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggesting further downside risk as technical analysis indicates. A breakdown below $100,000 could trigger a cascade to $94,000 or even $87,000, where prior support levels have temporarily halted declines per market observations. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics indicate that the $100,000 level has historically acted as a liquidity trap, with traders exiting positions near this threshold according to data.

Despite the near-term pessimism, historical context offers a counterbalance. November has averaged 41.92% returns for Bitcoin since 2018, and the fourth quarter has delivered an average 78.03% gain, fueling optimism about a year-end rally according to historical patterns. Long-term holders remain in profit, and some analysts argue that the current consolidation within a rising trendline since mid-2024 could set the stage for a $126,000 retest if buyers defend the $100,000 level per expert analysis.

The debate over Bitcoin's trajectory underscores divergent views among experts. While some, like Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, speculate that $100,000 could be the last major dip before decentralized finance (DeFi) disrupts traditional banking as market analysis suggests, others warn of a prolonged capitulation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart at 44 suggests bearish momentum is gaining traction, but the asset's resilience in holding the $100,000 zone for months indicates buyers may yet stabilize the market according to technical indicators.