Bitcoin News Today: Bearish Derivatives and Bullish Institutions Clash as Bitcoin's Fate Hangs in Balance

Bitcoin's price continues to face downward pressure amid growing bearish sentiment, with derivatives data and institutional actions painting a mixed picture for the world's largest cryptocurrency. The digital asset fell below $85,500 on Nov. 21, marking a 7% decline in 24 hours and a 20% drop from its October peak of $126,223.18. Analysts point to a confluence of factors: macroeconomic uncertainty, a surge in sell pressure from dormant wallets, and a bearish shift in derivatives positioning. Deribit data shows puts now dominate over calls, with over 13,800 contracts concentrated at the $85,000 strike price.

The bearish narrative is reinforced by derivatives platforms. Derive.xyz estimates a 50% probability of Bitcoin finishing 2025 below $90,000, up from earlier projections, while the chance of surpassing $100,000 has dwindled to 30%. This shift reflects broader market fears of a prolonged correction, with some analysts warning of a potential drop to $75,000 before year-end. Meanwhile, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have hit a record $72 billion, a pattern historically linked to major Bitcoin rallies. However, under a no-rate-cut scenario, analysts expect BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 as liquidity remains constrained.

Despite the near-term pessimism, bullish catalysts persist. Michael Saylor's Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reported a third-quarter net income of $2.8 billion, driven by a 7% price rise in its 640,031 BTC holdings. The firm, now known as Strategy, has signaled intentions to continue accumulating Bitcoin during the slump, echoing its 2022 strategy when it bought heavily during a $16,000 price. Saylor dismissed concerns over potential delisting from major indices, emphasizing the company's structure as a "Bitcoin-backed structured finance firm" rather than a fund.

Institutional support for Bitcoin also gained momentum with the introduction of the Bitcoin for America Act. The bill, endorsed by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, allows Americans to pay federal taxes in Bitcoin without triggering capital gains liability, with proceeds directed into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Proponents argue the move would modernize U.S. financial systems and create a market-driven model for national Bitcoin accumulation.

Macro factors, however, remain a wildcard. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts and lingering inflation have dampened bullish momentum. Additionally, a recent fractal analysis by Cas Abbé suggests Bitcoin could consolidate between $85,000 and $100,000 for 3-4 weeks before retesting key resistance levels. While some traders see a path to $100,000 by year-end, others warn of a deeper correction mirroring the soybean bubble of the 1970s.

Satoshi Nakamoto's net worth, once among the world's top five, has plummeted to $90.7 billion-a 34% drop since October-as Bitcoin's price collapse erased $47 billion in wealth. Meanwhile, billionaire Robert Kiyosaki has shifted $2.25 million in Bitcoin profits into real-world assets, including surgery centers and a billboard business, despite his long-term $250,000 price target.

As the market grapples with volatility, the coming months will test the resilience of both retail and institutional holders. With macroeconomic clarity still distant and derivatives positioning skewed to the downside, Bitcoin's path to recovery remains fraught with uncertainty.