Bitcoin News Today: "BCH's $497.6 Defense Crumbles as Bears Target $450 Abyss"

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) faces mounting bearish pressure, with analysts warning that its price could plummet to $450 amid deteriorating on-chain metrics and broader crypto market weakness. The asset, currently trading near $508, has been rejected at key technical levels, while declining investor sentiment and derivatives data reinforce a bleak outlook, according to an FXStreet BCH report.

Technical indicators highlight the risks of a deeper correction. Santiment's Social Dominance metric for BCH has plummeted to 0.15%, its lowest since July 2023, reflecting waning media interest and community engagement. Meanwhile, Coinglass data shows futures open interest for BCH has dropped to $148.18 million, down from $200 million in early October, signaling reduced investor participation. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate flipped to a negative 0.0039% on Tuesday, a historical precursor to sharp price declines.

The broader cryptocurrency market has also turned bearish, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leading the downturn. Bitcoin fell below $108,000 this week after U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks restricting access to Nvidia's advanced AI chips dampened optimism about U.S.-China trade de-escalation, as noted in an FXStreet report. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $789.95 million in outflows last week, breaking a streak of inflows and underscoring institutional skepticism. The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 34th day, has further exacerbated economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin's struggles have spilled over to smaller cryptocurrencies. CoinShares reported a $360 million net outflow from crypto investment products last week, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for $946 million of the retreat following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments, according to a Crypto.News report. "Bitcoin remains the most sensitive asset to monetary policy shifts," noted CoinShares' James Butterfill. While Solana (SOL) attracted $421 million in inflows, other altcoins like Ethereum and Litecoin saw modest gains, failing to offset the broader selloff.

For BCH, Fibonacci retracement levels and momentum indicators suggest further downside. The price rejected a key trendline at $565.1, a 78.6% retracement level, and fell over 5% in two days. If BCH breaks below the 61.8% level at $497.6, it could target the $450.2 support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 and a flattening MACD histogram confirm bearish momentum.

Market sentiment is further pressured by macroeconomic factors. Santiment analysts warned that crowd-driven "buy the dip" activity, often a contrarian bearish signal, has intensified ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, as reported in a CoinEdition report. A $512 million liquidation event, mostly long positions, occurred Tuesday, compounding fears of a prolonged downturn. Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 325,600 BTC over 30 days, according to CryptoQuant, highlighting reduced institutional confidence.

While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin's volatility could persist. Santiment noted that Bitcoin often rebounds after periods of extreme fear, as seen in October when it rebounded from $107,000 to $110,000. However, for BCH, the path appears more precarious. "If bears control $497.6, the next target is $450," said one derivatives trader, emphasizing the need for a swift recovery to $537.1, the 100-day EMA level.