Bitcoin Nears $109,000 Mark With 29.45% Q2 Gain Despite Volatility

As the second quarter draws to a close, Bitcoin is on the brink of achieving an unprecedented quarterly record. The cryptocurrency is approaching the $109,000 mark, driven by bullish momentum and converging technical signals. However, this optimistic outlook is accompanied by underlying tensions, including a demand deficit, liquidity games, and uncertainty surrounding US interest rates. The June monthly close could potentially alter the market dynamics significantly.

Last weekend, the Bitcoin market experienced intense volatility due to algorithmic manipulations. A trading bot, described as "predatory" by trader Skew, triggered a sharp rise in the BTC/USD pair, temporarily pushing it beyond $109,000. This operation liquidated a $12 million short position before the market corrected its gains. Trader BitBull confirmed that the same actor had caused a similar artificial pump and dump two weeks prior. These manipulations, which rely on coordinated liquidity movements in the order book, are becoming more common, especially during low-volume periods like weekends. Currently, the BTC/USD pair has filled the last gap in the CME futures market, formed during these fluctuations. However, the unbalanced liquidity distribution, with demand concentrated between $108,000 and $110,000 and supply extending down to $98,000, creates a fertile ground for sudden movements and increased risk of extreme volatility in the next 24 to 48 hours.

June could be a historic month for Bitcoin. Despite strong volatility fueled by macroeconomic news and market manipulations, the month is set to finish in the green. The second quarter shows an impressive increase of 29.45%, positioning this period among the strongest of the year for BTC. To establish a record monthly close, the Bitcoin price simply needs to stay above $104,630, a target that is less than 3% from current levels and perfectly achievable if the bullish momentum holds. Technical signals and volumes confirm this bullish potential, but the market remains sensitive to macro shocks and the strategies of large holders. Caution is advised as an extended weekend approaches in the United States, where liquidity could become scarce.

Behind the encouraging figures, a worrying signal is emerging: demand is no longer keeping pace with supply. According to a recent analysis, the Bitcoin market is suffering from a "critical demand deficit." Long-term holders are reactivating their dormant holdings, while miners are massively taking profits. As a result, the volume of BTC put into circulation exceeds that absorbed by new buyers, a configuration considered bearish. This dynamic increases available supply, weakens market support, and may reflect a sense of exhaustion among experienced investors. The 30-day apparent demand indicator has returned to negative territory, a first since April, when Bitcoin was still trading below $75,000. This technical reversal fuels fears of a market peak already reached or imminent. Added to this is a key timing variable raised by analyst Rekt Capital. If Bitcoin follows its usual post-halving cycle, the consolidation phase could occur as early as September or October 2025. In other words, time is running out: only a few months remain before entering a more pronounced consolidation phase.