Bitcoin Nears $100,000 Mark With 3.6% Weekly Gain

Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 milestone, continuing its steady upward trend. As of the latest data, the asset is trading at approximately $96,091, reflecting a 3.6% increase over the past week. This upward movement follows a correction in early April, indicating sustained market engagement and building momentum.

Analysts are closely monitoring indicators that could shape short- to mid-term expectations. CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. recently shared data suggesting that Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum has entered a “start” rally zone, with a momentum ratio of approximately 0.8. This threshold is crucial in determining whether Bitcoin will push higher or enter a consolidation phase.

Adler outlined three scenarios that could shape the next rally in a post titled “Bitcoin is warming up – 3 scenarios that could shape the next rally.” The “optimistic” case predicts that if the momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and holds, Bitcoin could rally toward the $150,000–$175,000 range. This scenario mirrors historical breakout phases observed in 2017 and 2021, where decisive breaks in key metrics sparked extended bullish runs.

The “base case” assumes that the momentum ratio stabilizes between 0.8 and 1.0, keeping Bitcoin in a broad trading range between $90,000 and $110,000. In this scenario, market participants hold their positions but remain cautious about increasing exposure. A more conservative view, the “pessimistic” scenario, would be triggered if the ratio drops toward 0.75, suggesting that short-term holders may begin taking profits, potentially leading to a correction in the $70,000–$85,000 zone.

Adler emphasized that with a recent correction already priced in, the optimistic and base case outcomes appear more plausible at present. A separate analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan suggests further support for a bullish outlook. Dan notes that Bitcoin’s current structure bears similarities to past accumulation phases observed earlier in 2024. He highlights that in both January and October, rising activity from short-term holders preceded significant rallies. This behavioral trend has returned in recent days, signaling that the market is positioning for a larger move.

These patterns have historically emerged just before major surges not only in Bitcoin but also in the altcoin space. If current activity mirrors past cycles, Bitcoin may be preparing to surpass the $100,000 mark and transition into a renewed uptrend. The recent upward movement on the 2-hour chart further supports this bullish outlook, indicating that Bitcoin is warming up for its next big rally.