El giro hacia la inteligencia artificial en los mineros de Bitcoin: Una guía para inversores que buscan crecimiento, centrada en la escalabilidad y el TAM.

The story for Bitcoin miners is shifting from a volatile, low-margin commodity play to a scalable, high-margin infrastructure bet. The catalyst is clear: a struggling mining business. Hash price has hit an all-time low, and with Bitcoin's price action creating severe financial pressure, the industry is facing a stark choice. As Nick Hansen of the Luxor mining pool noted, resisting the pivot to AI will be miners' biggest challenge in 2026.

This isn't a minor adjustment; it's a fundamental repositioning. The financial math is compelling. For companies that have secured AI contracts, the new model promises operating margins of 80% to 90%. That dwarfs the thin margins typically associated with Bitcoin mining. More importantly, the revenue potential per unit of power is three times higher, with AI contracts generating three times the revenue on a per-megawatt basis compared to traditional mining.

The trajectory is steep. According to CoinShares' 2026 outlook, mining revenue is projected to plummet from around 85% of total revenue in early 2025 to less than 20% by the end of 2026 for these AI-contracting firms. This collapse in the mining share signals a decisive bet on a new growth engine. The total addressable market here is massive, with $65 billion worth of contracts already announced between Bitcoin miners and major tech companies and cloud providers by October 2025.

The bottom line for a growth investor is the scalability and margin profile. This pivot is about capturing a secular trend in artificial intelligence infrastructure, trading the boom-and-bust cycle of crypto mining for the predictable, high-margin revenue of powering the AI revolution.

Capturing the TAM: Contract Wins and Scalable Models

The pivot from mining to AI infrastructure is no longer theoretical. Companies are already capturing market share, and the scalability of their new business models is becoming clear. The evidence points to a sector-wide buildout with a massive total addressable market, where early wins are proving the concept.

Applied Digital's Polaris Forge 1 campus is a standout example of rapid, scalable deployment. The full energization of its first building generated $85 million in revenue from a major AI client. That single structure, part of a larger 400 MW campus, demonstrates the model's ability to convert power capacity into high-margin revenue almost immediately upon completion. This isn't a slow ramp; it's an instant revenue engine. The company's stock surge and analyst upgrades following the report signal the market is pricing in this scalability.

On a larger scale, Hut 8 is targeting a multi-billion dollar footprint. The company is seeking zoning approval for a potential $5 billion data center project in Illinois. While still in the planning phase, this ambition underscores the sector's focus on massive, long-term infrastructure plays. The sheer size of the proposed project aligns with the capital-intensive nature of AI data centers and the need for vast, reliable power-precisely the assets Bitcoin miners are repurposing.

All of this activity is happening against a backdrop of a colossal, already-announced market. By October 2025, $65 billion worth of AI contracts had been announced between Bitcoin miners and major tech companies and cloud providers. This figure represents the sector's collective TAM and validates the strategic shift. For growth investors, the key insight is that early contract wins like Applied Digital's $85 million building are the first steps in capturing a fraction of that $65 billion pool. The scalability is inherent: each new building or campus deployed can replicate this revenue model, turning a single client win into a multi-year, multi-billion dollar revenue stream. The business model is now about scaling power capacity into AI compute, and the contract wins are proving the demand is real.

Financial Impact and Valuation: Growth vs. Current Earnings

The financial impact of the pivot is already materializing, with revenue growth and margin expansion outpacing traditional mining profitability. Applied Digital's latest quarter is a clear case study. Its revenue nearly doubled to $126.6 million, driven by the full energization of its first AI campus building. More importantly, the company reported adjusted net income that was breakeven, a stark improvement over the losses analysts had expected. This isn't just a beat; it's a demonstration of the new model's ability to generate high-margin, predictable cash flow from day one.

The market is pricing this transformation with conviction. Bitcoin miner stocks have been among the strongest performers in early 2026, with Applied Digital's shares up 30% year-to-date and Hut 8's up 26% year-to-date. These rallies reflect investor optimism for the AI growth story, which is being valued ahead of current earnings. The stock moves are a direct signal that the market is trading the future potential of these companies, not their past mining profits.

Analyst consensus for Hut 8 captures this tension between bullish growth and high uncertainty. The median price target implies a modest 7% upside to the current stock price. Yet the wide range of targets-from a low of $27 to a high of $85-highlights the volatility of the setup. This dispersion isn't about the company's fundamentals; it's about the difficulty of modeling a rapid, capital-intensive buildout into a nascent market. The bullish median reflects confidence in the TAM and contract pipeline, while the low end acknowledges execution risks and the time required to scale.

For a growth investor, the valuation story is straightforward. The pivot trades the volatile, low-margin revenue of Bitcoin mining for the scalable, high-margin revenue of AI infrastructure. The financials are beginning to show it. The market is rewarding companies that have secured contracts and are executing on deployment, as seen in Applied Digital's stock surge and Hut 8's strong YTD return. The wide analyst target range for Hut 8 is a reminder that while the growth trajectory is clear, the path to realizing that potential is still being built.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The growth thesis for Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI is now in its validation phase. The next few months will be critical, with specific milestones and market dynamics serving as key checkpoints for the sector's transformation.

First, watch for the completion of the next phase of Applied Digital's 400 MW AI campus. The company recently achieved ready-for-service status at its Polaris Forge 1 campus, fully energizing the first building. This marks the completion of the first of three contracted facilities. The outcome of the subsequent phases will test the scalability and execution speed of the model. Similarly, Hut 8's pursuit of a $5 billion data center project in Illinois is a major long-term bet. The company is seeking zoning approval for this potential megaproject, and a positive decision would be a significant green light for its ambitious expansion plan. These are the tangible steps that will either confirm the sector's buildout momentum or expose execution delays.

A key operational risk remains the difficulty of balancing two fundamentally different workloads. As Nick Hansen of the Luxor mining pool noted, "very difficult to balance [both mining and high-performance computing]". This challenge is real. AI data centers require a different level of expertise and operational focus compared to Bitcoin mining. For companies attempting to run both simultaneously, the risk is operational friction, capital misallocation, and potential strain on management bandwidth. This is the industry's biggest challenge in 2026, and how well firms manage this dual mandate will directly impact their ability to scale efficiently.

Finally, monitor Bitcoin ETF flows as a barometer for the underlying asset's health and miner sentiment. Strong institutional demand supports the price, which in turn influences the financial viability of the mining side of the business. The sector saw a powerful signal on January 5, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbing a net inflow of approximately $697 million. That was the largest single-day inflow since October and coincided with Bitcoin pushing past $93,000. This institutional re-risking is a positive tailwind for miner stocks, as it bolsters the value of their core asset and the broader ecosystem they operate within. Continued strong ETF flows would provide a supportive backdrop, while a reversal could reignite pressure on mining operations and complicate the AI pivot.

The bottom line is that the growth story has moved from promise to execution. The next phases of campus deployment, the outcome of major zoning decisions, the ability to manage dual operations, and the flow of institutional capital into Bitcoin will all serve as critical checkpoints. For investors, these are the events that will either accelerate the sector's ascent or reveal the friction in its path.