Bitcoin/Mexican Peso Market Overview

Summary
• BTCMXN traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours, with a breakout attempt in the early evening.
• Key resistance tested and rejected at 1,900,000 MXN, with a doji forming on the 15-minute chart at that level.
• Volume surged during the breakout attempt but declined afterward, indicating a lack of conviction.

Opening Narrative

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened the 24-hour period at 1,875,361 MXN and reached a high of 1,922,617 MXN. The price dipped to a low of 1,869,946 MXN before closing at 1,893,106 MXN. The total traded volume was 0.3325 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 634,761,472 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The price structure displayed a strong resistance at the 1,900,000 MXN level, which appeared to be a psychological and likely previous support-turned-resistance. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed during the evening hours, suggesting a potential reversal, but this was quickly negated by a doji, hinting at indecision among traders. The price then retreated to test lower support levels, forming a small base around 1,880,000 MXN.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a convergence, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic support near 1,875,000 MXN. Over the daily timeframe, the price remained above both the 50 and 200-period moving averages, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp positive spike during the breakout attempt, but it quickly returned to near zero, reflecting the rejection at the 1,900,000 MXN level. RSI reached an overbought level near 75 MXN before a sharp decline, signaling a potential pullback. The RSI remains in neutral territory, suggesting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively low for much of the 24-hour period, with the Bollinger Bands compressing toward the end of the evening. Price broke out of the upper band during the late afternoon but quickly retracted back into the band, indicating a temporary spike in volatility without a sustainable move. Price has since settled into the middle of the bands, suggesting a continuation of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a large spike during the breakout attempt. The high volume was not followed by a sustained price move, indicating potential exhaustion. Turnover was also high during the breakout, but the price failed to hold the gains, creating a divergence between volume and price, which could signal a bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn from the recent 15-minute swing high at 1,922,617 MXN to the swing low at 1,869,946 MXN. The 61.8% level coincided with the 1,890,000 MXN area, which has held firm as support. Daily retracement levels from the month-to-date high suggest the 1,875,000 MXN level may provide additional support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern forms near the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the 1,875,000 MXN level. A take-profit target could be set at the 1,900,000 MXN resistance or the 1,910,000 MXN extension level. This approach would aim to capitalize on short-term bullish momentum while managing risk through defined exits and protective stops.