Bitcoin/Mexican Peso Market Overview

Summary
• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 1,886,658 MXN and closed at 1,895,604 MXN after a volatile 24-hour session.
• The price reached a high of 1,918,580 MXN and a low of 1,872,406 MXN, with volume concentrated in late-night and early-morning trading.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI and volume during a key breakout attempt, suggesting uncertainty in the rally.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) experienced a mixed 24-hour session, opening at 1,886,658 MXN and closing at 1,895,604 MXN. The pair hit a high of 1,918,580 MXN and a low of 1,872,406 MXN. Over the past 24 hours, total trading volume amounted to approximately 0.58 BTC, with notional turnover reaching 108.7 million MXN. The session featured sharp intraday swings, particularly between 03:30–05:00 ET, when a bullish breakout occurred, followed by consolidation and pullbacks.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish engulfing pattern forming around 03:30 ET, followed by a bearish reversal at 05:15 ET. A potential support zone was identified between 1,880,000 and 1,890,000 MXN, where the price consolidated multiple times. Resistance appears to be developing around 1,900,000–1,910,000 MXN. A long lower shadow on the candle closing near 1,906,326 MXN at 03:30 ET may indicate rejection of higher prices.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period moving average was below the 50-period line, suggesting a weak short-term bias toward the upside. On the daily chart, price action crossed above the 50-period MA, but remained below the 200-period MA, indicating a broader consolidation phase rather than a clear breakout.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session but quickly reversed with bearish divergence. The RSI reached overbought levels (~70) around 03:30 ET, followed by a sharp correction. By 07:15 ET, RSI had fallen into oversold territory (~30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the failure to retest key resistance levels without follow-through volume may limit bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within a wide Bollinger Band range for most of the session, with volatility expanding between 03:30 and 05:00 ET. The closing candle near 1,895,604 MXN was positioned in the upper mid-band, suggesting pressure to retest the 1,900,000 MXN psychological level. A re-test may trigger another contraction in volatility if buyers fail to materialize.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:30–05:00 ET timeframe, particularly during the bullish engulfing pattern. Total turnover during this period accounted for 53% of the 24-hour total, while volume on the 06:45–07:00 ET consolidation was relatively low. This divergence suggests uncertainty among traders about the sustainability of the rally, with heavy participation during the breakout followed by cautious consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute move from 1,872,406 MXN to 1,918,580 MXN, the 38.2% retracement level was at 1,896,000 MXN — very close to the current close. The 61.8% level sits at 1,885,000 MXN, which may act as a potential support. A break below this level could reinvigorate bearish momentum toward the 1,870,000 MXN psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data-driven challenge of backtesting the Bullish-Engulfing pattern on BTCMXN highlights the importance of using reliable and supported price series. While BTCMXN data is currently unavailable, the strategy could be adapted by using a closely related pair like BTCUSD or BTCUSDT, which are more readily accessible. By applying the same pattern recognition logic to these assets, a meaningful 24-hour holding-period backtest can still be conducted. Alternatively, if BTCMXN historical data becomes available in CSV or JSON format, the backtest could be tailored precisely. The key is to ensure that the data used for backtesting is clean, consistent, and aligned with the timeframe of the original strategy.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin/Mexican Peso may test the 1,900,000 MXN resistance level within the next 24 hours, but the bearish divergence in volume and RSI suggests caution. A failure to close above 1,900,000 MXN could lead to a re-test of the 1,885,000 MXN support level. Traders should watch for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown, as well as renewed volume activity, to gauge the next directional bias.