Bitcoin/Mexican Peso Market Overview

• BTCMXN traded lower overnight, closing near intraday lows with bearish momentum.
• A key support level at 2,100,000 MXN was tested and held amid moderate volume.
• Volatility surged during the 03:30–04:30 ET range, indicating potential short-term reversal.
• RSI and MACD show bearish divergence, suggesting potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
• A bullish counter-trend rally may occur, but a break below 2,080,000 MXN could trigger further selling.

The Bitcoin/Mexican Peso pair (BTCMXN) opened at 2,124,593 MXN and closed at 2,099,873 MXN after hitting a high of 2,144,491 MXN and a low of 2,079,419 MXN over the past 24 hours. The 24-hour volume totaled 2.89 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 613.3 million MXN.

Over the past 24 hours, BTCMXN displayed a bearish bias with a notable breakdown from key resistance levels in the 2,120,000–2,140,000 MXN range. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 12:00–15:00 ET, reinforcing the downtrend. The price tested a critical support level at 2,100,000 MXN twice, with the second test on October 12 showing a rejection. A doji candle appeared around 03:30 ET, suggesting potential indecision in the market.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages below price, indicating a bearish bias, while the 50-period daily MA is near 2,125,000 MXN, acting as a psychological level. MACD remains in negative territory with bearish divergence, and RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, potentially signaling a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands widened overnight, reflecting increased volatility, with price sitting near the lower band.

Volume spiked during the 03:30–04:30 ET range, aligning with the 2,100,000 MXN support test, but failed to confirm a rebound. Turnover spiked in the early morning hours as price swung between 2,079,419 MXN and 2,096,843 MXN, indicating increased participation from short-term traders. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2,144,491 MXN high to the 2,079,419 MXN low show 61.8% at 2,093,500 MXN and 38.2% at 2,123,000 MXN, both of which may play a role in near-term price direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when RSI dips below 30 and MACD shows a bullish crossover, both aligned with a rejection at key Fibonacci levels. Given BTCMXN’s behavior in the last 24 hours—particularly the oversold RSI and bearish divergence in MACD—such a strategy may have yielded mixed results. A buy signal at 03:30 ET, when RSI was near 30 and volume surged, could have led to a short-lived bounce. However, bearish divergence in MACD and weak volume in subsequent sessions may have limited potential gains, suggesting caution in applying this strategy in a bearish market environment without additional bullish confirmation.