Bitcoin/Mexican Peso Market Overview (2025-10-03 12:00 ET)

• Price opened at 2,209,590 MXN and closed at 2,219,101 MXN, with a 24-hour high of 2,245,871 MXN and a low of 2,205,309 MXN.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged during the overnight hours, with volume increasing in the final 6 hours.
• Volatility expanded after 19:00 ET, peaking with a candle that closed at 2,228,157 MXN, but later consolidated around key Fibonacci levels.
• RSI entered overbought territory midday, while MACD crossed above zero in the morning, signaling potential momentum.
• Price held above a critical 2,205,309 MXN support level and tested 2,230,000 MXN as a psychological resistance cluster.

Market Summary

The Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) pair opened at 2,209,590 MXN and closed at 2,219,101 MXN at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 2,245,871 MXN and a low of 2,205,309 MXN. Total volume was 2.49 BTC, and notional turnover stood at approximately 553.35 million MXN. The session featured a bearish to bullish reversal in the overnight hours, with renewed momentum from 19:00 ET onward.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bullish engulfing pattern at 23:45 ET–00:00 ET as BTCMXN rose from 2,219,334 MXN to 2,223,323 MXN. A key support level at 2,205,309 MXN was tested and rejected, suggesting short-term buyers are active. Later in the session, a 2,228,157 MXN high saw a bearish reversal pattern at 03:30 ET, with a 0.004896 BTC volume candle that closed at 2,221,082 MXN. A notable 2,215,309–2,219,101 MXN consolidation suggests accumulation near psychological 2,220,000 MXN levels.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, BTCMXN closed above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating a bullish bias. The 50-period SMA at 2,216,000 MXN serves as a key support zone. Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate contraction from 03:00 ET to 07:00 ET, followed by an expansion in volatility from 19:00 ET onward, with prices hovering near the upper band during the high of 2,245,871 MXN.

MACD and RSI

The 12:00 ET close saw BTCMXN’s 15-minute MACD line at 16,924 MXN, crossing above the signal line in the morning and remaining positive throughout the session. The 15-minute RSI reached 68 at midday, entering overbought territory, which may suggest a near-term pullback is possible. However, no sharp overbought divergence was observed, which weakens bearish conviction. On the daily chart, RSI remains in a balanced 50–60 range, indicating a potential continuation.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume surged in the final 6 hours of the session, with notable volume at 2,228,157 MXN (0.008315 BTC) and at 2,220,078 MXN (0.051244 BTC). Notional turnover aligned with price highs, confirming strength in those zones. A volume spike at 2,230,030 MXN (0.001406 BTC) coincided with the first leg of a bullish move after 15:00 ET. Price and volume aligned well on the 24-hour chart, with no significant divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2,205,309 MXN low to the 2,245,871 MXN high include 61.8% at 2,229,641 MXN and 38.2% at 2,219,652 MXN. Price tested the 38.2% level multiple times in the last 6 hours, suggesting consolidation and potential breakout. The 61.8% level was briefly touched at 2,228,157 MXN before a retest, indicating it could be a short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified bullish engulfing pattern and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as a consolidation level, a backtest could evaluate a strategy that enters long on a breakout above 2,220,000 MXN with a stop below the 2,205,309 MXN support and a target at the 61.8% level. This approach could be refined with MACD and RSI signals to filter false breakouts. Historical data from similar setups would help estimate win rate and risk-reward ratio.