El renacimiento macroeconómico de Bitcoin: cómo las solicitudes de desempleo y la flexibilización de la Fed están remodelando la criptodinámica

The U.S. labor market and Federal Reserve policy have long been pivotal forces in shaping global financial markets. In 2025, these dynamics are accelerating a shift in crypto positioning, with Bitcoin emerging as a strategic asset amid macro-driven liquidity shifts. Rising jobless claims, dovish Fed signals, and a weakening U.S. dollar are creating a tailwind for Bitcoin, while institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are cementing its role as a scarce, inflation-hedging asset.

Weak Labor Data and the Fed's Dovish Pivot

The latest U.S. initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 20, 2025, came in at 214,000, slightly below the consensus of 224,000 but still elevated compared to historical averages. This persistent labor market weakness-compounded by rising claims among federal workers amid government shutdown risks-has intensified expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026. Market pricing now reflects two rate cuts in 2026, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipping to 97.80, a fresh low since early October.

The Fed's dovish pivot is critical. As inflation slows and labor market pressures ease, the central bank's credibility as a hawkish actor has eroded, particularly after President Donald Trump's public advocacy for rate cuts in a strong economy. This shift has triggered a reevaluation of risk assets, with Bitcoin benefiting from its dual role as both a hedge against fiat debasement and a high-conviction trade in a low-interest-rate environment.

Dollar Weakness and Bitcoin's Scarcity Premium

The U.S. dollar's decline in late 2025 has amplified Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce asset. While the dollar rose 2.6% against a basket of currencies in 2025, its relative weakness in the fourth quarter-driven by global bond market reallocation and rising yields in emerging markets-has made Bitcoin a more attractive alternative to fiat currencies. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in a world where institutional investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a "clean liquidity trade," as noted by Vincent Liu of Kronos Research.

Bitcoin's scarcity-capped at 21 million coins-contrasts sharply with the Fed's expansive monetary policy. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which could add $3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over a decade, and Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to double-A, have further fueled demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. This narrative is reinforced by the fact that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $57 billion in cumulative inflows in 2025, representing 6.5% of its total market cap.

Institutional Adoption and the ETF Catalyst

The surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows underscores a broader institutional realignment. On a single day in late 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $457 million in net inflows-the strongest in over a month-led by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $391 million. This momentum reflects Bitcoin's evolving narrative as a strategic asset, with experts like Liu emphasizing its role in diversifying portfolios against fiat debasement.

Regulatory developments have also played a key role. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the implementation of the GENIUS Act have reduced friction for institutional entry, while Bitcoin's market dominance hit 60% in late 2025, its highest in a month. These factors suggest that Bitcoin is no longer a speculative fringe asset but a core component of institutional portfolios seeking exposure to hard money.

Technical and Structural Challenges

Despite the macroeconomic tailwinds, Bitcoin faces near-term technical hurdles. A bearish wedge pattern and the presence of 6.7 million BTC held at a loss highlight structural fragility. However, the market's short-biased positioning-where shorts dominate-creates a potential catalyst for a sharp rebound. A break above $97,820 could trigger a short squeeze, propelling Bitcoin toward $100,000 without significant new capital inflows.

Looking ahead, the supply-demand imbalance in 2026 will be even more pronounced. Institutional demand is projected to exceed annual Bitcoin production by over 4.7 times, suggesting a potential price target of $150,000–$200,000 if demand outpaces supply.

Strategic Positioning for 2026

The confluence of weak labor data, Fed easing, dollar weakness, and institutional adoption creates a compelling case for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. While short-term volatility remains a risk, the macroeconomic backdrop-characterized by expansive liquidity and regulatory clarity supports a long-term bullish thesis. For investors, the key is to balance near-term technical risks with the structural tailwinds driving Bitcoin's evolution from speculative asset to a cornerstone of diversified portfolios.