La propuesta de valor a largo plazo de Bitcoin: Refutar las afirmaciones bajistas y evaluar la resiliencia del precio

The debate over Bitcoin's long-term value has intensified in 2025, with bearish arguments gaining traction amid a 30% correction from its October peak of $126,000 to $87,000–$90,000 by year-end. Critics point to technical weaknesses, macroeconomic headwinds, and mining sector stress as existential risks. However, a closer examination of Bitcoin's fundamentals-institutional adoption, supply dynamics, and on-chain metrics-reveals a resilient asset class with structural strengths that defy short-term volatility.

Bearish Argument 1: Technical Weakness and Market Momentum

Bearish analysts argue that Bitcoin's consolidation in a symmetrical triangle pattern, with resistance at $92,000 and support near $84,000, signals a potential breakdown toward $68,000–$74,000. They cite declining futures open interest (down 40% from October's peak) and reduced institutional flows as evidence of waning demand.

Yet, this narrative overlooks Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals. Daily active addresses have surged to 2 million, a 300% increase from 2016, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains above 1, indicating long-term holders are reluctant to sell at a loss. The network's hash rate, at 1,000 EH/s, also underscores robust security, making a 51% attack infeasible. Even the 4% hash rate drop in December 2025-a sharp but temporary decline-historically correlates with bull market setups.

Moreover, institutional adoption has created a structural floor. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have normalized institutional accumulation, with pension funds and corporate treasuries treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This demand has offset sell pressures from long-term holders, stabilizing the price and reducing velocity.

Bearish Argument 2: Macroeconomic Risks

Macro risks, including a cooling global economy, U.S.-China tensions, and a potential hard landing, are frequently cited as threats to Bitcoin's long-term value. Critics argue that Bitcoin's risk premium has been reevaluated as capital shifts from speculative tokens to large-cap assets.

However, Bitcoin's macroeconomic resilience is evident in its role as a non-sovereign collateral asset. Despite Japan's shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy, institutional investors have remained committed, cushioning Bitcoin from sharp corrections. For example, a 4% price drop in October 2025 was attributed to leveraged trader liquidations, not a fundamental loss of confidence.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's market cap dominance of 59–60% in Q4 2025 highlights its outperformance over altcoins, even during a 25–27% quarterly market decline. This dominance reflects growing institutional trust in Bitcoin as a store of value, with 74% of circulating BTC now illiquid and 75% of coins dormant for over six months.

Bearish Argument 3: Mining and Hash Rate Concerns

The 4% hash rate drop in December 2025 has raised alarms about mining profitability and network security. Reports indicate that mining revenue fell 35% year-over-year, with production costs near $44 per PH/s/day and revenue under $38 per PH/s/day. Critics argue this signals a "miner capitulation" and potential network instability.

While mining challenges are real, they are not unique to Bitcoin. The hash rate decline coincided with a 9% price drop and external factors like China's Xinjiang mining shutdowns. Historically, such volatility has preceded bull cycles, as seen in the 2020–2021 and 2023–2024 cycles. Additionally, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio of 1.51 confirms Bitcoin's valuation is supported by real transactional activity, not speculative hype.

Conclusion: Structural Strength Over Short-Term Noise

Bitcoin's long-term value proposition is anchored in its structural strengths: institutional adoption, supply-side dynamics, and macroeconomic resilience. While bearish arguments highlight valid risks, they often conflate tactical volatility with fundamental weakness. The data tells a different story: on-chain metrics, ETF inflows, and market cap dominance all point to a maturing asset class.

As 2026 unfolds, investors should focus on Bitcoin's role as a decentralized store of value and its alignment with traditional financial infrastructure. The recent correction may present a buying opportunity for those who recognize that Bitcoin's price resilience is not a function of speculation, but of structural demand and network security.