Bitcoin Likely to Rally After U.S. Election, Irrespective of Winner: Van Straten

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, market participants are speculating on the potential impact on Bitcoin. While some analysts predict a rally after the election, regardless of who wins, others caution against relying on political outcomes for investment decisions. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied after U.S. elections, with the price on election day serving as a price floor for a parabolic rally. However, it's essential to consider the long-term implications of regulatory shifts on the crypto industry and Bitcoin's value and adoption.


Bitcoin's price behavior on election day has consistently served as a price floor for a parabolic rally. In the last three elections, Bitcoin's price on election day was $13,569 in 2020, $700 in 2016, and $11 in 2012. After each election, Bitcoin went on a rally, ultimately peaking above these prices in the following months. For instance, after the 2020 election, Bitcoin peaked above $69,000 in 2021. This positive trend suggests that Bitcoin is prime for a rally after the upcoming election, regardless of the outcome.


Regulatory expectations and political statements on crypto have played a significant role in Bitcoin's election-related price movements. Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have addressed the future of digital assets, signaling that crypto has entered mainstream policy discussions. Trump envisions the U.S. as a global crypto capital, while Harris has pledged to support regulation in the sector. However, both candidates would mark a change from the crackdown on the industry under President Joe Biden. This renewed political interest and potential regulatory shifts could fuel a post-election rally for Bitcoin, as seen in previous elections.

Bitcoin's volatility and trading volume have historically surged around U.S. elections, with a significant rally following each event. In the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, Bitcoin rallied by almost 12,000%, 3,600%, and 478% respectively after each election. This trend suggests that Bitcoin's volatility and trading volume around elections have been a bullish catalyst for its price.


In conclusion, while the U.S. election may have some short-term impact on Bitcoin's price and regulatory risk perception, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently rallied after each election, regardless of the winner. As investors and market participants look beyond the election, they should focus on Bitcoin's fundamentals and market cycles, rather than relying on political outcomes. The long-term implications of regulatory shifts on the crypto industry and Bitcoin's value and adoption will ultimately determine the cryptocurrency's trajectory in the years to come.