El cambio en la fase tardía del ciclo de Bitcoin: el comportamiento de LTH como precursor del retorno institucional

Bitcoin's 2023–2025 bull market has defied historical patterns, marked by a fragmented distribution of long-term holder (LTH) supply and a recalibration of institutional participation. Unlike prior cycles, where LTH selling typically followed a single peak-and-bust trajectory, this cycle has seen three distinct waves of LTH distribution, coinciding with price surges driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launches, Trump election optimism, and sustained institutional demand according to analysis. These dynamics, coupled with evolving on-chain metrics, suggest a maturing market structure where institutional reentry is increasingly decoupled from speculative retail behavior.

LTH Behavior: A Fragmented Distribution Model

The 2023–2025 cycle has been defined by repeated LTH selling, with the third wave occurring as Bitcoin stabilized above $100,000 in late 2024–2025 as data shows. This contrasts sharply with historical bull cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, where LTH supply typically followed a single, euphoric peak before retreating. The current pattern reflects a shift in market psychology: LTHs are no longer hoarding supply during price rallies but instead unlocking value in phases, often coinciding with macroeconomic catalysts.

This behavior has contributed to a nearly 40% correction from October 2025's all-time high, as sell-side pressure outpaced absorption by institutional buyers according to analysis. However, the market's ability to absorb these sell waves-without triggering a traditional bear market-highlights a structural change. Institutional investors, through ETFs and regulated ETPs, have absorbed over six times the amount of newly mined Bitcoin in 2025, creating a supply-demand imbalance that has compressed volatility as reported. This dynamic has allowed LTHs to maintain a cost basis above $89,000, even as short-term holders (STHs) face a 90% underwater rate according to market data.

Institutional reentry and market structure
The reentry of institutional capital into Bitcoin has been a defining feature of this late-cycle phase. Regulated products, such as U.S. spot ETFs, have provided institutions with a compliant on-ramp, enabling Bitcoin to transition from speculative asset to strategic allocation according to analysis. This shift is evident in on-chain data: exchange outflows have persisted despite price corrections, signaling a move toward self-custody and long-term accumulation as data indicates.

Institutional demand has also stabilized Bitcoin's price action. For instance, ETF inflows historically supported a consistent cost basis around $89,000, mitigating the volatility typically seen in retail-driven markets according to analysis. This contrasts with the 2021 cycle, where retail euphoria drove a sharp blow-off top followed by a rapid collapse. Today's market, however, is characterized by a "stalemate" between profit-taking and accumulation, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovering near neutral levels according to market data. This suggests that most sales occur close to purchase prices, reflecting a more rational, less fear-driven environment.

On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Two Holder Cohorts

On-chain metrics further illuminate the divergence between LTH and STH behavior. Mid-tier whales (10–1,000 BTC) have acted as net sellers, cashing in profits during price peaks, while super-whales (10,000+ BTC) have quietly accumulated, signaling long-term strategic buying as reported. This "supply redistribution" is a hallmark of mid-to-late bull cycles, where coins flow from weaker to stronger hands.

Retail behavior has also diverged. While small holders (≤10 BTC) have panicked during corrections, a more seasoned retail cohort has used market fear to accumulate according to analysis. This bifurcation underscores the maturation of Bitcoin's user base, with retail investors increasingly adopting a long-term mindset. Meanwhile, institutional players have leveraged the high-volatility range around $88,000 to execute options strategies and range-trading, capitalizing on the defined market structure as data shows.

Macro Factors and the Path Forward

The late-cycle phase is further shaped by macroeconomic headwinds. Delayed U.S. rate cuts and the ongoing stress in the AI bubble have created a risk-off environment, with Bitcoin falling in lockstep with AI-linked assets according to analysis. However, Bitcoin's structural resilience-driven by persistent accumulation and a defined cost basis-suggests that the next major directional move will require a significant external catalyst, such as renewed ETF inflows or a macroeconomic shift according to market data.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's 2023–2025 cycle has redefined late-cycle dynamics, with LTH behavior serving as both a precursor and a reflection of institutional reentry. The repeated distribution waves, coupled with stable institutional demand, indicate a market increasingly dominated by price-insensitive investors. As on-chain metrics reveal a shift toward long-term accumulation and self-custody, the stage is set for a new paradigm where Bitcoin's value proposition is less tied to retail speculation and more aligned with institutional-grade asset allocation. Investors should monitor macroeconomic catalysts and on-chain absorption rates, as these will likely dictate the next phase of Bitcoin's journey.