Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview: BTCUAH 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary
• BTCUAH opened at 4526790.0 and closed at 4577723.0 after a volatile session.
• A key intraday low at 4484171.0 acted as support, with price recovering by 5.8%.
• Volume and turnover increased during the afternoon, confirming the bullish breakout.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the price surged above the upper band.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4526790.0 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and closed at 4577723.0 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair hit an intraday high of 4593103.0 and a low of 4484171.0. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 0.05975 BTC, with a notional turnover of around 27.1 million UAH.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish to bullish reversal pattern forming in the late afternoon. A significant pullback occurred around 4484171.0 UAH, where buying interest emerged. A key breakout candle was observed at 4590585.0, opening at 4590585.0 and closing at 4577723.0—a bearish reversal pattern suggesting distribution or profit-taking. The price appears to find strong support at the 4484171.0–4498160.0 range and faces resistance at 4526790.0–4532356.0.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in the early afternoon, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period moving average above both the 100- and 200-period lines, supporting a longer-term uptrend. Price is currently trading above the 50-period MA on the daily chart, indicating continued momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish in the late morning as the line crossed above the signal line, with a positive histogram forming during the afternoon and into the evening. The RSI dropped into oversold territory in the early evening (down to ~28) but rebounded to ~55 at the close, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish move. The RSI appears to diverge from price briefly during the 20:00–22:00 ET period, but the divergence is not significant.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during the late morning (17:00–18:00 ET) before expanding sharply during the afternoon breakout. Price traded above the upper band during the final 6 hours of the period, indicating high volatility and a strong bullish impulse. The contraction earlier in the session could be seen as a potential breakout signal, which was confirmed by the late-day price action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the late afternoon, particularly between 18:00–21:00 ET, confirming the price breakout. A sharp increase in volume was observed during the 20:30–21:15 ET window, where price moved from 4501177.0 to 4492400.0 and then recovered to 4494682.0. The volume-to-price divergence was minimal, indicating strong confirmation of the price action. Overall, volume and turnover were aligned with the bullish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 4484171.0–4532356.0 swing was around 4503056.0, which was briefly tested but not broken. The 38.2% retracement level came in around 4510872.0, which was also a support area in the early morning. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the larger UAH swing was around 4532356.0, which appears to be a key resistance level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of a direct BTC/UAH price series for backtesting, a pragmatic approach would involve using a widely available BTC-USD or BTC-USDT pair to detect key candlestick signals—such as the Bearish Engulfing pattern seen today. Once identified, the resulting trade signals could be translated into UAH using historical USD/UAH exchange rates to replicate the UAH exposure. This method maintains the integrity of the technical logic while enabling accurate P&L in UAH terms, assuming stable and available FX data. Alternatively, a direct BTC-USD backtest can be run, with the results interpreted in USD, acknowledging that the trading logic holds universal validity.