Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview for 2025-10-05

• BTCUAH traded in a narrow range for much of the 24-hour period before surging to 5,291,350 UAH at 05:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 00:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp upward move from 5,152,306 UAH to 5,291,350 UAH.
• Volatility surged late in the session as price hit a 24-hour high, but no significant volume accompanied the move.
• Momentum appears to be overextended on the RSI, which pushed above 75 during the final hours of the period.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the final push, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential exhaustion.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, BTCUAH opened at 5,144,004 UAH and moved down initially before forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 00:15 ET, triggering a sharp upward move. The 24-hour high of 5,291,350 UAH was reached at 05:00 ET before closing at 5,181,508 UAH by 12:00 ET the same day. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 0.043 BTC, with a notional turnover of ~221,702,750 UAH.

Structure & Formations

BTCUAH exhibited a series of consolidation phases, punctuated by key price breaks. The most notable formation occurred at 00:15 ET, where a bullish engulfing pattern signaled a reversal after a 1-hour sideways trend. The candle opened at 5,165,516 UAH and closed at 5,152,306 UAH, before surging to 5,190,415 UAH by 00:15. This formation may indicate a short-term reversal in sentiment, especially as it preceded a steep rally to 5,291,350 UAH at 05:00 ET. A large bullish candle at that time, followed by a series of smaller range-bound candles, suggests traders may be consolidating the gains in the wake of the move. A potential support area appears to be forming between 5,163,034 UAH and 5,177,521 UAH.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above key support levels during the early morning hours, indicating a potential shift in trend. The 50-period MA was last recorded at 5,180,000 UAH, which is just below the session close. This suggests that the price remains above the mid-term trend, though not by a wide margin. For the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are still in a longer-term downtrend, with BTCUAH trading near or below the 100-day MA. This divergence between shorter and longer-term averages could signal a potential retesting of key support or resistance levels in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The RSI surged to over 75 during the final hours of the session, indicating potential overbought conditions and a risk of a short-term pullback. The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before the 00:15 ET bullish move, forming a positive divergence with price, which may suggest bullish momentum is building. However, the divergence between the MACD and price movement during the consolidation phase from 05:00 to 07:00 ET suggests that the momentum may be waning. Traders should watch for a potential bearish crossover on the MACD if BTCUAH fails to hold above 5,180,000 UAH in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the first half of the session, suggesting low volatility and a potential breakout. This was followed by a sharp expansion coinciding with the 00:15 ET bullish move, as the price surged well above the upper band. The bands have since narrowed again, indicating a return to a range-bound phase. The price currently sits near the middle band, with the upper band at approximately 5,250,000 UAH and the lower band at 5,100,000 UAH. This suggests that the market is in a period of consolidation following the sharp upward move, with potential for another breakout or a pullback to the lower band in the coming days.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the 00:15 ET bullish engulfing pattern, with 0.04265 BTC traded in that 15-minute period. This was one of the largest volume spikes of the session, and it was accompanied by a notional turnover of over 218 million UAH. However, the subsequent move from 5,152,306 UAH to 5,291,350 UAH occurred with very low volume, suggesting a lack of broad market participation in the move. This divergence between price and volume may indicate that the move was driven by large institutional or algorithmic players rather than broad retail demand. The next 24 hours will be critical for confirming whether this move is sustainable or if it will be followed by a correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent swing from 5,152,306 UAH to 5,291,350 UAH, the 38.2% level is around 5,230,000 UAH, and the 61.8% level is near 5,195,000 UAH. The current close of 5,181,508 UAH is just below the 61.8% level, suggesting the price may be testing this critical support area. If BTCUAH falls below 5,195,000 UAH, the next level of support would be the 50% retracement at around 5,222,000 UAH. Conversely, a retest of the 5,230,000 UAH level could confirm the 38.2% retracement as a potential area for further consolidation before the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed patterns—particularly the bullish engulfing candle at 00:15 ET and the subsequent move to a 24-hour high—BTCUAH may benefit from a mean-reversion strategy based on RSI overbought conditions and MACD divergence. A backtest could simulate entering a long position when RSI crosses above 70 and MACD generates a bearish crossover, with a stop-loss placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The exit would be triggered when RSI falls below 60 or when the price breaks below the 50-period MA. This strategy aims to capture short-term overbought corrections while avoiding false breakouts during periods of low volume and high volatility.