Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview for 2025-09-15

• BTCUAH closed 2.7% lower at 4889367 UAH, forming a bearish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour high of 4970607 UAH.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory (29), suggesting short-term downward exhaustion, but volume remained subdued, weakening confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction in early hours, but a sharp late sell-off expanded volatility into the upper band.
• Volume was concentrated in late-night and early morning sell waves, highlighting divergent activity between day and night trading sessions.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 4916929 UAH and 4899275 UAH acted as key resistance and support, respectively, guiding intraday price behavior.

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4920482 UAH on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4889367 UAH on 2025-09-15 at the same hour, reaching a high of 4970607 UAH and a low of 4881808 UAH. Total traded volume over 24 hours was approximately 0.048 BTC, with a notional turnover of roughly 24.07 million UAH.

Structure & Formations

The BTCUAH chart displayed several key support and resistance levels over the 24-hour period. A bearish reversal pattern emerged around 05:00–06:00 ET, as the price spiked to 4970607 UAH before dropping sharply. This was followed by a consolidation phase below 4934967 UAH, forming multiple doji and small bodies indicating indecision. A significant bearish engulfing pattern appeared between 23:45 and 00:00 ET, confirming the breakdown of 4916929 UAH, a key Fibonacci retracement level from earlier bear moves. These formations suggest a potential continuation of bearish momentum in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearishly aligned for most of the session, with the 20 MA dipping below the 50 MA in the late morning hours. This "death cross" pattern, although not a strong signal at this timeframe, reinforced the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages showed the price remained below both lines, confirming a continuation of a longer-term downtrend. Traders may watch for a potential bearish breakout below the 4881808 UAH level for further downside confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a bearish crossover in the early hours of 2025-09-15, with both the MACD and signal lines trending lower. The histogram reflected a shrinking bearish momentum until a late-night sell-off drove it sharply lower again. RSI dipped into the oversold zone (29) at the close, which could suggest a potential short-term bounce. However, the weak volume during the RSI decline suggests that the bounce may be short-lived or lack conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy focusing on the convergence of RSI oversold readings and bearish candlestick patterns may yield a short-term trade opportunity. For instance, a long bias entering at a 4889367 UAH rebound and a short entry below 4881808 UAH could be considered, assuming a 3% stop loss is placed. A more conservative approach would wait for confirmation of the breakdown of 4889367 UAH before entering short positions. The MACD and moving averages support a short-term bearish stance, but traders should remain cautious due to low volume and uncertain volatility levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate contraction during the early hours, with the price hovering near the midline. However, the sharp sell-off late in the session caused the bands to expand significantly, with the price closing near the lower band at 4881808 UAH. This expansion suggests increased volatility and a bearish bias for the next 24 hours. A retest of the 4899275 UAH level could signal a potential bounce, but a close below that level would strengthen bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively muted for most of the day, with only a few spikes during key price moves. Notably, the sharp drop from 4970607 UAH to 4889367 UAH was accompanied by a volume increase of ~0.0009 BTC, which is relatively low for such a significant price decline. This divergence suggests a lack of conviction behind the move. Conversely, the rebound in the late morning hours saw a modest increase in volume, which could indicate short covering or a potential bounce. Traders may watch for a volume surge on a break above 4899275 UAH to confirm a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels played a key role in guiding price action throughout the session. The 38.2% level at 4916929 UAH acted as a strong resistance early in the morning, while the 61.8% level at 4899275 UAH offered support during the midday consolidation. A breakdown below 4881808 UAH confirmed the 78.6% retracement level, which could now serve as a dynamic support. Traders may consider the 4881808 UAH to 4874771 UAH range as the next target for further downside.

Looking ahead, the BTCUAH pair appears to be in a short-term bearish phase, supported by technical indicators and Fibonacci levels. A close below 4881808 UAH could trigger further downside, but traders should remain cautious due to the low volume and potential for short-term volatility. As always, managing risk with stop-loss orders and monitoring volume for confirmation of key price levels is essential.