Bitcoin Hovers Above $94K as Market Awaits News on U.S.-China Trade Deal

Bitcoin’s price has stabilized near $95,000 in early May 2025, marking a resilient recovery from its April low of $74,000. However, the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum faces uncertainty as the U.S.-China trade war enters a critical phase. With talks stalled over tariffs and structural reforms, investors are bracing for geopolitical winds that could either supercharge Bitcoin’s ascent or reignite volatility.

Bitcoin’s Technical and Fundamental Resilience

Bitcoin’s current price of ~$95,000 reflects a 15% rebound from March lows, driven by institutional inflows and technical optimism. reveals aggressive buying at support levels, with on-chain data showing large "whale" investors accumulating during the April dip. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC exhibited a near-perfect accumulation trend score (1.0), signaling sustained demand.

The success of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been pivotal. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $591 million in net inflows in a single day in late April, a record for the product. This institutional legitimacy has anchored Bitcoin’s price, even as macroeconomic headwinds persist.

The Trade Deal Stalemate: Catalyst or Hindrance?

The U.S.-China trade relationship remains a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. While geopolitical tension fuels demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin, a resolution could reduce uncertainty and shift focus to fundamentals.

China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed in early May that U.S. officials had reached out for talks, but Beijing demands the U.S. first remove its 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. imports have slashed bilateral trade volumes. JP Morgan estimates U.S. imports from China could plummet 75-80% by late 2025, with factory activity in China contracting at the fastest pace in 16 months.

The U.S. faces its own fallout. The National Retail Federation warns of a 20% year-over-year decline in total U.S. imports, with retail giants like Walmart and Target scrambling to diversify supply chains. This economic strain could pressure the White House to compromise—a move that might ease Bitcoin’s volatility.

Why the Trade Deal Matters for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s $150,000 IMF projection—hinged on central bank adoption—is contingent on macro stability. A breakthrough in U.S.-China talks could:
1. Reduce geopolitical risk premiums, lowering demand for safe-haven assets.
2. Boost institutional confidence, accelerating ETF inflows and regulatory clarity.
3. Stabilize global markets, enabling Bitcoin’s technical breakout above $100,000.

Conversely, a prolonged stalemate would likely amplify Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat instability. China’s declining reliance on U.S. markets (exports fell from 19.8% in 2018 to 12.8% in 2023) and its dominance in critical sectors like rare earth metals (72% of U.S. imports) suggest Beijing has room to endure the trade war. This could prolong uncertainty, keeping Bitcoin’s volatility premium intact.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hangs in the Balance

Bitcoin’s price near $95,000 is a microcosm of its dual identity: a speculative asset fueled by geopolitical tension and a nascent institutional darling. With $2.3 billion in weekly futures open interest and whale accumulation at multiyear highs, the technical foundation is robust. However, the $100,000 psychological barrier—and ultimately the $150,000 IMF target—will hinge on the U.S.-China trade deal’s resolution.

If tariffs are rolled back, Bitcoin could surge toward its January 2025 high of $109,000, with ETFs like IBIT acting as catalysts. But if the stalemate persists, Bitcoin may consolidate near $90,000-$95,000 until macro clarity emerges. Investors must weigh the $591 million in institutional inflows against the 75% projected decline in Sino-American trade—two forces pulling Bitcoin’s future in opposite directions.

The path forward is clear: Bitcoin’s next chapter will be written not just in code, but in the boardrooms of Beijing and Washington.