Bitcoin Holds Near $90K as ETF Outflows and Mining Adjustments Signal Market Volatility

• Bitcoin traded near $90,700 amid $343 million in ETF outflows and compressed prices below $91,520, indicating a potential breakout or renewed downside risk.
• Mining difficulty dipped slightly to 146.4 trillion in the first 2026 adjustment, offering temporary relief for miners after a year of record-high difficulty.
• Analysts anticipate renewed volatility as Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels and liquidity dynamics shift.

Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $92.8K, with traders monitoring resistance at $92K and potential retests of $100K as liquidity conditions evolve. Market participants noted concentrated order-book liquidity below $88K and "thin air" above $95K that could enable a breakout. Technically, the price emerged from a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the weekly RSI at its lowest since late-2022.

Ethereum also saw activity around $3.2K, with a recent upgrade increasing its blob limit to 21 and enhancing network scalability. Meanwhile, major players like Riot sold $200M in Bitcoin in late 2025, signaling strategic balance sheet management.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty, which had reached a peak of 155.9 trillion in November 2025, remained elevated despite a slight dip in January 2026. The April 2024 halving reduced block rewards by 50%, compounding margin pressures for miners. Miner hash price fell below breakeven levels in November 2025, reflecting the harsh margin environment.

The mining difficulty adjustment on January 9, 2026, lowered the metric to 146.4 trillion but is expected to rise again on January 22, 2026. Average block times at 9.88 minutes suggested a potential upward adjustment, maintaining the network's 10-minute block production target. This adjustment reflects ongoing pressure on the mining sector, driven by macroeconomic conditions and competition for grid resources.

Samson Mow predicted that Elon Musk would aggressively invest in Bitcoin in 2026, citing growing institutional and nation-state adoption. This forecast included a price target of $1.33 million for Bitcoin in 2026. Mow contrasted this with more conservative predictions from analysts like Matt Hougan, who expected a steady upward trend rather than dramatic gains.

BlackRock warned that AI data centers could consume up to 24% of US electricity by 2030, potentially creating grid competition for Bitcoin miners. The firm urged investors to reframe AI as an energy constraint rather than a pure software trade. This shift could impact Bitcoin's operations, as miners rely on cheap and flexible power sources.

The interplay between Bitcoin's technical indicators, mining dynamics, and macroeconomic factors underscores the complexity of the market. Institutional and strategic influences, including predictions of Musk's investment and AI energy demands, highlight the evolving landscape for Bitcoin investors and operators.