Bitcoin Holds Below $110,000 Amid Institutional Rebalancing

Bitcoin has been trading below the $110,000 mark, with a modest 2% gain in the past 24 hours, priced at $108,071. Despite nearing its all-time high in recent weeks, Bitcoin appears to be in a holding pattern due to institutional rebalancing and on-chain dynamics.

Recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi has highlighted unusual on-chain activity during the final days of June. The analyst noted conflicting behaviors among Bitcoin whales, with a notable $641 million in realized profits recorded alongside more than $1.24 billion in realized losses. This combination suggests a potential inflection point in market sentiment.

Mevsimi emphasized that this mixed realization trend came at the close of the second quarter, a period often associated with institutional portfolio adjustments. The timing adds weight to the idea that this wasn't just noise but may have been a deliberate repositioning. These large movements in realized profit and loss did not extend into early July, which may imply either a temporary stabilization or the beginning of a new market phase.

The report also detailed divergent whale behavior. Newer whales, likely short-term participants entering in Q2, showed signs of capitulation, realizing both profits and significant losses. In contrast, older whales locked in $91 million in profits with negligible losses. This division may indicate a shift in control, with experienced holders offloading risk while short-term players exited amid market uncertainty. According to Mevsimi, the convergence of these trends hints at a local exhaustion phase rather than a continued rally.

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant’s Darkfost explored the unrealized profit profile of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), revealing a downward trend despite BTC’s proximity to record highs. Citing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Darkfost noted that average unrealized profits have fallen to around 220%. This is well below the peaks recorded during market tops in March and December 2024, which reached 300% and 350%, respectively.

“Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost stated. The realized price for LTHs now stands at approximately $39,000, suggesting a strong cushion but also reinforcing that speculative excess has yet to return in full force. The analyst added that a return to top-cycle unrealized profit levels would require BTC to rise to around $140,000, a target echoed by several bullish forecasts.