Bitcoin Holds Near $108,000 Amid Trade Uncertainties and Institutional Buying

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining its position near $108,000 despite a recent dip and escalating global trade uncertainties. The stability in Bitcoin's price comes amidst a backdrop of heightened risk aversion triggered by the issuance of new tariff letters by the US President. These tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, have sparked concerns about trade relations with multiple countries, leading to a wave of global risk aversion.

Historically, a weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has signaled strong Bitcoin bull market potential. CryptoQuant’s latest analysis highlights a consistent inverse relationship between the DXY and Bitcoin. The data shows that when the DXY trades below its 365-day moving average, Bitcoin often enters strong uptrends. Historical examples include major rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2020. As of mid-2025, DXY is again under its 365-day average, suggesting the conditions for another bullish phase are present. This pattern supports the narrative of Bitcoin acting as a macro hedge during periods of dollar weakness.

Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades reports that Bitcoin’s spot premium remains stable, with continuing institutional buying through ETFs. Bitcoin is currently trading above $108,000, while the perpetual futures basis stands slightly negative at -0.05%. This implies cautious sentiment, where real demand is outpacing leveraged speculation. Daan noted that while ETF inflows have absorbed supply efficiently, a prolonged sideways range could risk a drawdown if momentum doesn’t return. He emphasized that a breakout remains possible once market liquidity tightens. The structure appears firm but leans on sustained demand rather than aggressive bullish speculation.

Corporate and institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust, with Murano Global Investments PLC, a real estate firm, announcing its decision to enhance its corporate strategy by establishing a Bitcoin Treasury. Murano has purchased 21 BTC and joined the "Bitcoin for Corporations" alliance, further supporting the adoption of Bitcoin by corporate entities. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant inflows of $216.64 million on Monday, continuing a three-day streak of inflows since July 2. This sustained interest from institutional investors suggests that Bitcoin could reach or even surpass its all-time highs if the inflow continues.

The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. The announcement by the US President that the US will resume sending weapons to Ukraine signals an intensification of the conflict, which could drive investors towards safe-haven assets like Gold. This shift towards safe-haven assets could introduce a risk-off sentiment, potentially impacting the prices of risky assets like Bitcoin.

Despite these geopolitical uncertainties, Bitcoin has shown signs of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 56, above its neutral level of 50, indicating bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart displayed a bullish crossover on June 26, further supporting an upward trend. If the support level at $108,355 continues to hold, Bitcoin could extend its rally towards the May 22 all-time high at $111,980. However, if Bitcoin faces a correction and closes below its support at $108,355, it could extend the decline to retest the lower boundary of the consolidation zone at $105,333, which roughly coincides with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $105,276, making this a key support zone for Bitcoin.