Bitcoin Holds Above $103,600 Despite Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite the volatility triggered by the conflict, Bitcoin has managed to maintain its position above key support levels, demonstrating its ability to withstand external shocks. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below its all-time high, entering a consolidation phase that many analysts view as a precursor to a potential breakout.

Top analyst Rekt Capital has noted that the final major Weekly resistance, which has historically capped price rallies, appears to be weakening. This shift suggests that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a significant market structure change, potentially leading to price discovery. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as macro headwinds, including rising US Treasury yields and energy disruptions, continue to impact global markets.

Bitcoin's ability to hold strong amidst these challenges indicates that the bulls may soon regain control. The coming days are crucial as the market awaits further developments in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to dominate headlines, influencing global markets and investor sentiment. In this uncertain environment, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears fully in control.

Diverging investor expectations contribute to the lack of clear direction. Optimistic market participants hope for a diplomatic resolution, which could reduce market anxiety and drive oil prices lower, potentially reigniting momentum across risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, more cautious investors fear prolonged conflict, which could spark volatility in the energy sector, push inflation higher, and strain economic stability, particularly in regions dependent on oil imports.

This week is pivotal for Bitcoin's next major move. Price action remains tightly bound, with all eyes on the long-standing Weekly resistance. According to Rekt Capital, the final major Weekly resistance, once a strong rejection point, now appears to be weakening. This shift suggests that Bitcoin may be preparing for a breakout into price discovery territory, should macro conditions stabilize.

The 12-hour chart for Bitcoin shows that BTC continues to trade within a tight range, holding above the critical $103,600 support while struggling to break cleanly through the $109,300 resistance. This zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price action since early May, with sellers stepping in around $109K and buyers defending dips near $104K. The recent bounce from just above the $103,600 level reflects ongoing buyer interest at that range, reinforced by the 100-day SMA (green), which is providing dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA (blue) is curling slightly upward, showing early signs of positive momentum, although the price has yet to clearly reclaim and hold above it.

Volume remains moderate, indicating a lack of strong conviction on either side. For bulls to regain full control, BTC must push through the $109,300 resistance with sustained volume and hold that breakout level. A failure to do so may result in another rejection and a potential retest of the lower boundary near $103,600. The coming days could prove pivotal for the next phase of BTC’s market cycle, as investors await clarity on the geopolitical situation and its impact on global markets.