Bitcoin Hits $111,970 All-Time High Amid Uncertain Third Quarter Outlook

Bitcoin's recent surge to an all-time high of $111,970 has sparked optimism among crypto market participants, but the sustainability of this momentum into the third quarter remains uncertain. Analysts are debating whether the current trend will continue, given that the third quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest-performing period.

Bitfinex analysts noted that the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin’s latest breakout was a local high or the prelude to a more aggressive leg higher in the third quarter. They suggested that a period of consolidation or mild retracement could be healthy and provide a more sustainable foundation for future price increases. This is not unusual for Bitcoin, as it has previously consolidated for extended periods after reaching all-time highs.

Bitfinex’s analysts also pointed out that Bitcoin had entered a “short-term range-bound phase,” with a significant amount of short-term holders selling off their positions over the past 30 days. This has led to a near-term supply overhang, but structural demand is also expected. The short-term holder realized price for Bitcoin was $95,781, while Bitcoin was trading at $108,929 at the time of publication, representing an average profit of 13.72% for short-term holders.

The analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s ETF “bid strength,” low volatility, and Bitcoin’s spot premium all signal a maturing market poised for eventual continuation once macro clarity improves. The trading week ending May 23 saw around $2.75 billion flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating strong investor interest.

Crypto investors are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on June 18 for more clarity on the macro environment. The Fed kept rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% in May, and any changes in this decision could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.

Several crypto pundits had predicted that Bitcoin would reach new highs earlier this year. On March 7, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said there was a 50% chance Bitcoin would reach new highs before June. Similarly, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts suggested that Bitcoin may hit “new all-time highs before Q2 is out.” These predictions, while optimistic, underscore the volatile and unpredictable nature of the crypto market.