La divergencia al alza oculta de Bitcoin: ¿un catalizador técnico para la suba de $115K?

Bitcoin's price action in late November 2025 has sparked renewed optimism among technical analysts, with key indicators suggesting a potential reversal from oversold conditions. At the heart of this narrative lies a subtle yet powerful phenomenon: hidden bullish divergence, a pattern that historically precedes sharp upward moves. With Bitcoin trading near $115K, the confluence of RSI, MACD, and volume dynamics is painting a compelling case for a breakout.

RSI Oversold Conditions and Momentum Shift

Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the critical 50 level, signaling a bearish-to-bullish momentum shift. This oversold condition, confirmed by a recent rebound from the 30-level threshold, suggests that short-term sellers may be exhausted. According to a report by , this RSI recovery coincides with a 60% probability of Bitcoin reaching $130K by Q4 2025, driven by institutional positioning and macroeconomic tailwinds.

MACD Crossover and Institutional Conviction

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has reinforced the bullish case with a bullish crossover, indicating strengthening upward momentum. Meanwhile, institutional activity underscores this technical setup. Record $63B in options open interest is concentrated at $120K–$140K strikes, reflecting professional market participants' anticipation of a further rally. This positioning aligns with Bitcoin's recent breakout above key resistance levels, including the EMA89 and EMA144, which now act as dynamic support.

Hidden Bullish Divergence: A Subtle but Critical Signal

The most intriguing development lies in the formation of hidden bullish divergence.

While the RSI currently shows bearish momentum below 50, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) is exhibiting bullish divergence, with rising volume despite sideways price action. This discrepancy hints at a potential reversal as buying pressure accumulates beneath the surface. Hidden bullish divergence typically occurs when price makes lower lows while an oscillator (like RSI or OBV) makes higher lows-a precursor to a sharp rebound.

Price Targets and Key Resistance Levels

Bitcoin's immediate target of $115K is supported by both technical and on-chain data. highlights that Bitcoin could reach this level within 30 days, with support near $99K and a critical resistance at $116,400 that must be breached to confirm the bullish continuation. If successful, this breakout could trigger a momentum surge toward $120K, where a $19B liquidation event was previously absorbed, creating a healthier foundation for the rally.

Broader Market Dynamics and Altseason Signals

The broader crypto market is also aligning with Bitcoin's bullish trajectory. Altcoins are showing early breakout patterns, with Ethereum consolidating near $4,200 and derivatives volume surging-a sign of institutional positioning for the next market cycle. Bitcoin's dominance remains stable, indicating that capital inflows are broadly distributed, which typically supports a sustainable Bitcoin rally.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Cuts and Weak USD

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors are amplifying Bitcoin's upside potential. A weaker U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle are boosting risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin benefiting as a hedge against fiat devaluation. These conditions create a fertile environment for Bitcoin to test-and potentially surpass-$115K.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Signals

Bitcoin's technical setup in November 2025 is a masterclass in confluence. The combination of RSI oversold conditions, MACD bullish crossovers, hidden bullish divergence, and institutional positioning creates a high-probability scenario for a $115K rally. While risks remain-particularly if the $116,400 resistance fails to hold-the broader macro and on-chain fundamentals suggest that this could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's journey toward $130K.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: monitor the $116K level closely. A breakout here would not only validate the bullish case but also unlock the next phase of Bitcoin's rally, driven by both technical and macroeconomic forces.